Barclays has raised its Brent crude price forecasts for 2025 and 2026, citing resilient demand and tightening inventories. The bank says it does not expect a peak in global oil demand to materialize in the near term, a view that contrasts with some longer-range transition scenarios.
The bank now projects Brent to average $72 per barrel in 2025 and $70 per barrel in 2026, reflecting a tighter market than previously anticipated. Analysts pointed to steady consumption in OECD markets and ongoing inventory draws as key factors supporting the revision. Barclays expects demand growth to exceed 1 million barrels per day in 2025, driven largely by robust activity in developed economies.
Barclays' revised outlook also incorporates a reassessment of geopolitical risk premiums. While recent diplomatic moves have eased some immediate supply concerns, lingering tensions and potential new sanctions continue to add volatility to the outlook. The bank cautioned that supply-side risks remain and could alter the trajectory if significant disruptions occur.
This stance places Barclays among forecasters who expect elevated oil consumption levels to persist for the foreseeable future even as energy transition pressures build. The bank's view underscores the complex balance between near-term demand resilience and longer-term structural shifts in energy use.