• Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin stated that without immigration, U.S. workforce growth is effectively zero.
  • Recent data shows immigration is the primary driver of labor force expansion, offsetting a surge in retirements and low birth rates.
  • A policy shift towards stricter immigration controls is projected to slow labor force and GDP growth in the coming years.

Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin highlighted a critical demographic reality facing the U.S. economy, stating that "without immigration, workforce growth is basically zero." This assessment, delivered in recent remarks, underscores a consensus view emerging from recent research and official data that immigration is now the singular most important factor propelling U.S. labor force expansion.

The numbers bear this out. In 2024 and 2025, net immigration led to a substantial upward revision of the U.S. working-age population, adding roughly 3 million more individuals, predominantly in the key 25–54 age range. This influx has been the linchpin allowing U.S. payrolls to continue expanding by an average of 200,000 jobs per month even as the nation experiences "peak 65," a period of record baby boomer retirements.

Efforts to reach a spokesperson for Barkin for further comment were not immediately successful.

However, this engine of growth is facing headwinds. A recent policy shift by the current administration has implemented stricter border controls, reducing unauthorized immigrant inflows and increasing deportations. According to analysis from the Dallas Fed, this slowdown in immigration is now projected to dampen labor force and GDP growth for 2025–28, though it is expected to have little immediate impact on inflation.

The underlying math is stark. With fertility rates well below the replacement level and retirements hitting historic highs, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and Census Bureau indicate the U.S. would otherwise face a shrinking labor force in 2025. Sectors with the highest predicted growth, such as STEM, healthcare, and services, rely especially on immigrants and international graduates to fill persistent labor gaps. Businesses are already reporting heightened challenges in filling openings, particularly in skilled trades.

This situation places immigration policy at the center of a fierce economic debate, balancing undeniable workforce needs against border control and humanitarian concerns. The U.S. finds itself in an increasingly competitive global race for talent, as other countries like Canada and Australia aggressively ramp up efforts to recruit skilled immigrants. Without major reforms to modernize its system and attract more workers, the U.S. risks a longer-term erosion of its competitive advantage in high-growth sectors.