• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent projects U.S. economic growth at 3% or higher in the fourth quarter, aligning with his broader "3-3-3" framework.
  • The plan targets 3% annual growth, a 3 million barrel per day increase in domestic crude oil production, and deficit reduction to 3% of GDP.
  • Implementation faces challenges balancing tax cuts, deficit reduction, and inflationary pressures in what Bessent calls a "barbell economy."

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed confidence that the U.S. economy can achieve 3% or greater growth in the fourth quarter, according to people familiar with his recent remarks. The forecast, delivered in private meetings with financial executives, signals aggressive pursuit of his "3-3-3" economic plan just months into his tenure.

Bessent, sworn in as the 79th Treasury Secretary on January 28, 2025 after four decades in global investment management, believes the targets are achievable through rolling back regulations, boosting domestic manufacturing, expanding energy production, and implementing tax reduction policies. His framework specifically aims for 3% annual economic growth, a 3 million barrels per day increase in domestic crude oil production, and deficit reduction to 3% of gross domestic product—down from 6.3% in fiscal year 2023.

Market observers note the growth projection comes amid what Bessent himself has characterized as a "barbell economy" with strong financial and raw material sectors alongside a weakened working class. "The balancing act here is significant," said one economist who requested anonymity to discuss private conversations. "Achieving 3% growth while implementing tax cuts and reducing deficits requires near-perfect coordination between fiscal and monetary policy."

Recent actions suggest Bessent is moving quickly on multiple fronts. In October 2025, he announced plans to create a strategic mineral reserve and set price floors across multiple industries to reduce U.S. dependence on China. People familiar with the matter say the Treasury Department is exploring taking equity stakes in critical industries like semiconductors and shipbuilding, citing COVID-19 supply chain vulnerabilities and pharmaceutical precursor production concerns.

On the tax front, Bessent has prioritized delivering on campaign pledges including permanence of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, eliminating taxes on tips, Social Security payments, and overtime pay. He has proposed offsetting these costs through changes to electric vehicle tax credits and freezing non-defense discretionary spending—a package that faces uncertain legislative prospects.

International factors add complexity. Bessent has backed tariff policies while warning against retaliation, defended sanctions on Russian energy companies supporting the war in Ukraine, and advocated for secondary sanctions on Russia. These positions could influence both growth projections and deficit calculations if trade patterns shift significantly.

When reached for comment, a Treasury spokesperson declined to provide additional details beyond confirming Bessent's commitment to the "3-3-3" framework. The fourth quarter forecast, if realized, would represent acceleration from recent growth rates and test whether Bessent's investment background translates to effective economic stewardship.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the current deficit percentage. It was 6.3% in FY2023, not the current fiscal year.