• Bitcoin has fallen approximately 47-50% from its October 2025 high, with a sharp 19% weekly drop to around $66,000 as of February 11, 2026.
  • The selloff is driven by deleveraging and liquidations totaling $3-4 billion, without full capitulation, as prices breach the critical 200-week EMA at $68,000.
  • Analysts warn of potential further downside to $60,000-$62,000 support zones, though lower volatility compared to past bear markets suggests much risk may already be priced in.

Bitcoin's recent plunge has rattled crypto markets, with the digital asset trading around $66,000 on February 11, marking a third straight session of declines and a 19% weekly drop. This move represents a peak-to-trough drawdown of approximately 47.5% from the October 2025 high, according to market data, driven by deleveraging from overextended positions rather than a single shock event. Liquidations in Bitcoin futures have reached $2-2.5 billion, though without signs of full capitulation, leaving prices at unprecedented levels—currently -2.88σ below the 200-day moving average, a statistical extreme not seen in over a decade.

Efforts to stabilize have hit a snag, with a brief bounce to the mid-$60,000s to low-$70,000s earlier in February failing to hold momentum. Prices are now below the critical 200-week exponential moving average at $68,000, a key technical level that has historically acted as support during bull markets. Without a decisive recovery, analysts caution that Bitcoin could test lower support zones near $60,000-$62,000, or even a bearish target of $52,000 based on Fibonacci extensions. "The deleveraging is intense but orderly," said one trader familiar with the matter, who spoke on condition of anonymity. "We're seeing forced exits from leveraged traders, but spot investors are accumulating at these levels, which could set the stage for a healthier foundation."

The broader crypto market mirrors Bitcoin's pressures, with Ethereum down 3.5% to $1,950, XRP falling 2% to $1.37, and Dogecoin dropping 3% to $0.09 on February 11. Ethereum's drawdown has reached 60.7%, while Solana's is at 69.5%, reflecting widespread risk-off sentiment. This decline marks the lowest Bitcoin price in US President Trump's second term, falling below pre-election levels after a period of post-inauguration stability, according to recent analyses. Geopolitical and economic tensions continue to weigh on risk assets, with little relief expected from upcoming legislation or shifts in market sentiment.

Miners are adding to the spot supply pressure, selling Bitcoin to fund transitions into AI and high-performance computing strategies as the crypto risk narrative weakens. Despite the sharp drop, the 90-day realized volatility stands at around 38, significantly lower than the over 70 levels seen during the 2022 bear market, suggesting that much of the downside risk may already be absorbed. Spot trading volume has hit "the busiest month in history," with investors dominating over speculators, indicating a shift toward patient capital rather than speculative froth. "We're not seeing the panic of past crashes," an analyst noted, pointing to the relative calm in derivatives markets compared to events like the COVID-induced crash or the FTX collapse.

Historical context adds to the caution: four-year cycles have shown average drawdowns of around 75%, per Wolfe Research, which could push Bitcoin toward $30,000 if the current trend persists. However, the current -47.5% drawdown remains less severe than the 2022 bear market's -78% or the worst-case -83.6%, and the lower volatility implies that relative value dynamics may reassert sooner. Experts, including those from firms like VanEck, see no structural damage to Bitcoin's long-term prospects, with potential for rallies on renewed investor inflows once deleveraging subsides. The path forward hinges on whether prices can hold above $60,000 or if further stress triggers a deeper correction, but for now, the market watches for signs of capitulation or a turnaround in risk appetite.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the peak Bitcoin price; it has been updated to reflect the approximate 47-50% decline from the October 2025 high, based on current market data.