• Bitcoin's recent decline has been calm, not panicked, suggesting prices could fall further before a strong buying opportunity emerges, says strategist Brian Reynolds. Volatility has risen but remains below 2022-23 levels.
  • With more leverage in the market, another leg down could trigger forced selling. Reynolds sees a better entry point if Bitcoin drops further below trend. Bitcoin trades near $66,590, down from its October peak of $126,223.
  • The selloff, driven by deleveraging rather than panic, has cut futures open interest by over 20% in a week, implying no capitulation yet but risk of forced selling if prices fall below trend.

Bitcoin fell sharply below $70,000 on February 5, 2026, triggering high spot volume of $32 billion over two days, a figure in the 95th percentile historically. ETF outflows added to the pressure, with BlackRock's IBIT (IBIT) seeing weekly net outflows of 13,670 BTC amid over $10 billion in volume, according to market data. Liquidations totaled $3-4 billion, including $2-2.5 billion in BTC futures, as prices hit a multi-month bottom near $60,000 before swinging between $66,000 and $72,000. As of February 11, Bitcoin is at $66,624, down 19% in the past week and 47.5% from its October peak, though still above historical worsts like the 83.6% drop in prior bear markets.

Efforts to stabilize have hit a snag, with macro uncertainty, institutional derisking, and tech stock turbulence amplifying the decline. Leverage unwind from an October peak of $90 billion in open interest signals absorption of downside risk, but 90-day realized volatility at around 38—half of 2022's levels above 70—suggests the market isn't in full panic mode. "Nobody's panicking despite the 30% drop," one trader familiar with the matter said, noting that the orderly decline benefits long-term holders by avoiding systemic stress seen in past crises like FTX or Luna.

Without a deal to boost sentiment, Bitcoin could face further downside. Prediction markets on Polymarket show bearish February sentiment, with 48% odds of hitting $60,000, 21% for $55,000, and 9% for $50,000 by month-end, versus low probabilities above $75,000. Volume on these sub-$60,000 outcomes has exceeded $49 million, reflecting trader bets. K33 Research sees $60,000 as a probable bottom, with consolidation likely between $60,000 and $75,000 in the coming weeks or months, while VanEck notes deleveraging has occurred without disorder, pointing to absorbed risk absent new catalysts.

Short-term supports are at $65,650, $63,000, and $60,000, above the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $57,800. Bitcoin is currently -2.88 standard deviations below its 200-day moving average, an extreme not seen in a decade and worse than during COVID or the FTX collapse, according to analysis. Altcoins have been hit harder, with Ethereum down 60.7% and Solana 69.5% from peaks, mirroring rare high-volume events. Attempts to reach Reynolds for further comment were unsuccessful, but his earlier remarks highlight a cautious outlook: further downside could trigger forced selling, but lower volatility suggests the worst may be absorbed, setting up for potential mean reversion later.