• Bitcoin dipped under $70,000 to $68,913, a 3.4% decline, amid $483.8 million in ETF outflows and two weeks of zero inflows.
  • Long liquidations reached $431 million, with reports of Strategy selling BTC adding to the sell pressure.
  • Prediction markets now price a 61% chance of Bitcoin falling below $55,000 this year.

Bitcoin Breaks Support

Bitcoin's brief slip below $70,000 has traders bracing for a deeper correction, with the largest cryptocurrency changing hands at $68,913 as of Thursday morning. The move lower comes as U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded massive outflows, with over $483.8 million pulled this week alone, according to data from Bloomberg. Inflows have ground to a halt, with zero net additions over the past two weeks, a stark contrast to the momentum seen earlier this year.

The sell-off accelerated as nearly $431 million in long Bitcoin positions were liquidated across major exchanges in the past 24 hours, adding fuel to the bearish fire. Reports that Strategy, the corporate Bitcoin holder formerly known as MicroStrategy, is selling some of its holdings further pressured sentiment, though the firm has not officially commented. We reached out to Strategy for confirmation but did not receive an immediate response.

Expecting a New Low

Market expectations have shifted sharply downward. On Kalshi, a prediction market platform, traders now see a 61% probability that Bitcoin will fall below $55,000 sometime this year, a threshold that seemed unlikely just weeks ago. Technical analysts point to the breach of key moving averages and a breakdown in momentum as warning signs.

“Without renewed buying pressure from ETFs or a broader macro shift, Bitcoin could test the $50,000 to $55,000 range,” said one trader familiar with the matter. The sentiment is echoed across options markets, where put skew has steepened.

What’s Driving the Rot

The outflows are part of a broader risk-off rotation in financial markets, with traditional assets also under pressure. Liquidity constraints and competition from other high-growth sectors, such as AI-related plays, have siphoned capital away from crypto. Meanwhile, the macro backdrop—uncertainty around interest rates and a strengthening dollar—is compounding headwinds for speculative assets.

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) saw the largest single-day outflow this week, reflecting institutional risk reduction. “ETF flows are the lifeblood of this rally, and their absence is a clear signal,” said a senior ETF analyst who declined to be named.

A Note on the Data

Correction: An earlier version of this report misstated the total liquidation figure as $431 million across all crypto assets; the correct figure for Bitcoin alone is $431 million. We regret the error.