• Bitcoin whales are buying again after a prolonged period of selling, with their holdings reaching 3.03 million BTC, the highest since November 2025, according to CryptoQuant data.
  • CryptoQuant labels the shift an 'early bull phase,' citing improving sentiment, while Bitcoin trades near $83,045, roughly flat on the day.
  • However, the bullish signal is not uniform: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to see withdrawals, and the exact whale-holdings figure conflicts with earlier reporting, raising questions about the rebounding narrative.

Whale wallets have started accumulating Bitcoin again, according to blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant, reversing a selling trend that had persisted for more than a year. The cohort, which includes large holders excluding exchanges and mining pools, now controls 3.03 million BTC, a level last seen in November 2025. That shift in behavior, CryptoQuant says, signals an “early bull phase” and suggests large investors are positioning for a recovery.

Bitcoin traded near $83,045 on Tuesday, largely unchanged over the past 24 hours. Despite the recent rebound from around $81,000 to an intraday high near $84,000, market conditions remain mixed. Analyst Ted Pillows attributed the bounce to strong spot demand, but leveraged traders and ETF investors have been less active.

ETF Withdrawals Temper the Bullish Thrust

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs reportedly lost approximately $679 million to $681 million last week, according to SoSoValue data. On Monday alone, outflows totaled $65.4 million, with none of the 12 funds registering an inflow. That divergence—whales buying while ETF investors exit—paints a less uniform picture than the “early bull phase” label implies.

CryptoQuant’s whale metric itself requires qualification. In May reporting, the firm defined whales as wallets holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC, excluding exchanges and mining pools. In August, its head of research, Julio Moreno, added that the series also excludes ETFs and digital-asset treasury companies. Thus, whale accumulation should not be conflated with institutional ETF demand or corporate treasury purchases.

A material discrepancy further complicates the headline claim. The Block’s August 5 reporting, based on CryptoQuant data, already put whale holdings at 3.06 million BTC and noted positive 30-day growth for most of 2026. That conflicts with the assertion of “highest since November 2025” and “buying again after more than a year of selling.” Unless the latest figure uses a different cohort, measurement period, or revised dataset, the superlative remains unverified. The original CryptoQuant analysis behind the exact claims was not independently located.

Macro Pressures and Regulatory Overhang

The accumulation signal arrives against a challenging macroeconomic backdrop. Elevated U.S. Treasury yields, a stronger dollar, rising oil prices, and uncertainty ahead of U.S. inflation data are all weighing on crypto markets. In its 2026 outlook, asset manager 21Shares described Bitcoin as a liquidity-sensitive, high-beta asset rather than a defensive hedge, underscoring its vulnerability to shifting financial conditions.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has taken a step toward regulating certain leveraged or margined retail crypto transactions. Announced October 5 and published in the Federal Register on October 13, the advance notice of proposed rulemaking contemplates a “Regulation Crypto Asset Transactions” framework and a “crypto asset market” registration category. Potential requirements include market-manipulation controls and proof-of-reserves obligations. Public comments are due December 14, 2026, leaving substantial policy design ahead.

Internationally, uneven implementation of Europe’s Markets in Crypto-Assets regulation could lead to venue concentration and liquidity disruption, according to 21Shares.

Historical Nuance and Mixed Signals

The recent sequence is more nuanced than a simple year-long selling period followed by a sudden reversal. Whale holdings had already reached a low near 2.87 million BTC in December 2025, then accelerated accumulation after Bitcoin fell below $60,000 in June–August 2026. By August, holdings stood near 3.06 million BTC, below the approximately 3.23 million BTC peak from the 2025 bull market.

Different reports also use different comparisons—year-over-year balance changes versus 30-day growth—which can describe different aspects of the same market. Nevertheless, the numerical conflict means the exact historical superlative remains unverified.

Short-term, analysts identify roughly $82,000 as a support area and $86,000–$87,000 as a recovery resistance band. Inflation data expected on October 14 is another near-term catalyst for interest-rate expectations.

In related developments, corporate Bitcoin demand continues: reporting on October 13 says Strategy (MSTR) bought another 250 BTC, showing that some corporate accumulation persists despite cautious fund flows. Ethereum faces similar fund pressure, with nine consecutive trading days of ETF outflows totaling roughly $700 million.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the date of the CFTC’s advance notice publication. It was published in the Federal Register on October 13, not October 5.