- Consumer spending in restaurants and retail remains robust, according to BofA's Miller.
- Business spending has weakened compared to last year's levels.
- The restaurant industry shows resilience with projected growth despite economic headwinds.
Consumer Spending Holds Strong
Bank of America executive Miller reported that consumer spending in restaurants and retail continues to show strength, with January 2025 spending per household up 1.9% year-over-year based on aggregated credit and debit card data. This comes as the restaurant industry anticipates reaching $1.5 trillion in sales this year while adding more than 200,000 net new jobs.
"We're seeing sustained demand in consumer-facing sectors," Miller noted, pointing to the industry's adaptation to value-conscious consumers. Nearly half of restaurant operators plan to introduce new value-focused promotions in 2025 as 95% report guests are more price-sensitive than before.
Business Spending Shows Softness
While consumer activity remains healthy, Miller observed that business spending hasn't maintained last year's momentum. This divergence comes as Bank of America projects GDP growth around 2% for both 2025 and 2026, with researchers monitoring potential tariff impacts.
The mixed picture emerges against a backdrop of cautious optimism among restaurant operators, with more than 80% expecting sales to either increase or hold steady compared to 2024. Bank of America itself reported $25.3 billion in revenue and $6.7 billion net income for Q4 2024, demonstrating institutional strength even as corporate spending cools.
Attempts to reach additional BofA executives for comment on the spending trends were unsuccessful. The bank maintains its position that no recession appears imminent, though analysts continue to watch for shifts in business investment patterns.