• JPMorgan expects Brent crude to hold in the low-$100s through much of 2026, even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens in June, citing tight inventories and logistical constraints.
  • Rapid stock draws and seasonal demand could push OECD inventories toward stress levels by August, keeping markets tight.
  • Bottlenecks may shift to tanker capacity and refining limits, delaying normalization, with Saudi Aramco's CEO calling the disruption the most severe ever.

Persistent Tightness Ahead

Brent crude oil prices are projected to remain above $100 per barrel well into 2026, as persistent supply bottlenecks offset any relief from a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, according to a new forecast from JPMorgan. The bank’s analysts expect Brent to average around $96 in 2026, with peaks above $100 during mid-year quarters, driven by rapid inventory draws and seasonal demand.

“Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens by June, the market will still face significant constraints,” a JPMorgan analyst said. The bank warns that OECD inventories could fall to stress levels by August, keeping prices elevated. Additional bottlenecks may emerge in tanker capacity and refining limits, delaying a normalization of supply.

Industry Warnings

Saudi Aramco’s CEO has separately described the current disruption as the most severe in history, cautioning that a full recovery could slip into 2027. The remarks underscore the deep logistical challenges facing global oil markets, even as geopolitical tensions around the Strait show signs of easing.

Market Implications

The sustained high prices reflect a market where supply constraints—from inventory tightness to infrastructure limits—are proving more stubborn than anticipated. Traders and refiners are bracing for continued volatility, with potential spikes during peak demand periods.

JPMorgan’s forecast stands in contrast to some other banks that see a risk of oversupply from non-OPEC+ production. However, the current data on stock draws and logistical logjams support the view that prices will remain elevated.

Update: Saudi Aramco declined to comment further on the recovery timeline.