• Cantor Fitzgerald maintains Overweight rating and $200 price target for NVIDIA despite $15B China revenue impact.
  • Q2 guidance expected at $46B revenue, slightly below consensus but stronger than feared.
  • Blackwell chip ramp and AI spending confidence through 2026 support long-term bullish case.

NVIDIA's Resilience in Face of Export Restrictions

Cantor Fitzgerald analyst C.J. Muse reiterated NVIDIA as a top pick, arguing the chipmaker's fundamentals remain strong despite significant challenges in China. While U.S. export restrictions are projected to wipe out $15 billion in 2025 data center revenue, the firm believes NVIDIA's diversified growth drivers can offset these losses.

"The China impact is real but manageable," Muse wrote in the note to clients, pointing to better-than-feared Q2 guidance of $46 billion in revenue (versus $46.3 billion consensus). The analyst expects management to strike a confident tone about AI spending durability during the May 28 earnings call, with particular focus on the Blackwell architecture ramp.

The Math Behind the Bull Case

Cantor's $200 price target reflects several key assumptions:

  • Data center revenue reaching $200 billion in 2025 (versus $175B consensus)
  • Mid-70% gross margins holding through second half 2025
  • EPS of $5.00 for 2025 and $6.50-$7.00 for 2026, well above consensus

At current levels, the firm sees shares trading at just 26.8x and 19.9x expected 2025 and 2026 earnings respectively - valuations they consider attractive for what remains "the arms dealer of the AI revolution."

The China Factor

The analysis comes days after CEO Jensen Huang revealed at Computex that NVIDIA's China market share had halved from 95% to 50% due to export curbs. While Morgan Stanley recently warned the restrictions appear "more disruptive" than expected, Cantor believes the $10.3 billion in lost China sales (about 6.3% of total GPU revenue) can be absorbed through growth elsewhere.

One wild card remains whether NVIDIA secures licenses for its China-compliant H20 chips. The company has already taken a $5.5 billion charge related to the restrictions, signaling it's preparing for prolonged challenges in the market.

What Comes Next

All eyes now turn to the May 28 earnings call, where management's commentary on three key issues will likely move the stock: 1) Blackwell demand visibility, 2) gross margin sustainability, and 3) any progress on China workarounds. With short interest near 52-week lows, the bar appears set for NVIDIA to deliver another beat-and-raise quarter.