- Evercore ISI strategist Julian Emanuel sets a base-case S&P 500 year-end 2026 target of 7,750, with a 30% probability of a “bubble” scenario pushing the index to 9,000.
- The projected gains are fueled by a “once-in-a-generation” AI technology shift, though Emanuel recommends hedging against oil price and interest-rate risks.
- Emanuel warns that AI and prediction markets can underweight extreme outcomes, raising the value of sector expertise and full workflow ownership.
Julian Emanuel of Evercore ISI sees the S&P 500 surging as high as 9,000 by the end of 2026 if AI-driven gains materialize, according to a research note published Tuesday. The strategist assigned a base-case target of 7,750 and roughly a 30% probability to an upside “bubble” scenario, drawing comparisons to the Roaring Twenties and the 1990s tech boom.
“The combination of the AI boom and major geopolitical shifts is creating unusually large market swings, similar to the 1920s and 1990s tech eras,” Emanuel said. He recommends long-term exposure to AI-focused stocks and the Invesco QQQ Trust, while using hedges against oil price and interest-rate risks.
The firm’s bullish outlook hinges on AI adoption accelerating earnings and valuations across tech and consumer sectors. However, Emanuel cautioned that AI and prediction markets can underestimate extreme outcomes, making sector expertise and owning full workflows more valuable over time.
The note comes amid elevated volatility in AI-related stocks through early 2026, with investors rotating between sectors as they reassess exposure and valuations. Evercore’s scenario analysis places nontrivial probability on both sustained gains and a sharp correction, reflecting the uncertainty around the AI buildout.
Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the target year as 2025. The correct year-end target is 2026.