• ExxonMobil (XOM) CEO Darren Woods said it could take one to two months for oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz to return to normal after the waterway reopens.
  • The gradual recovery reflects logistical bottlenecks, insurance hurdles, and tanker scheduling delays, according to the company.
  • Markets are bracing for continued volatility, with analysts warning that a full supply rebound may lag behind the political resolution.

Gradual Return Expected

ExxonMobil Chief Executive Darren Woods said on a conference call that even after the Strait of Hormuz reopens, normal oil flows are unlikely to resume immediately, estimating a timeline of one to two months for a full recovery. "We're looking at a gradual process," Woods said, citing the need to re-establish shipping schedules, confirm insurance coverage, and clear backlogs of tankers waiting to transit the chokepoint.

The comments come as geopolitical tensions that disrupted the strait — a conduit for about 20% of global oil — show signs of easing. However, Exxon's assessment aligns with market expectations that a return to pre-crisis production and export levels will be measured in weeks, not days.

Market Implications

Oil prices have remained elevated, with Brent crude trading near $90 a barrel, as traders weigh the timeline for supply normalization. Goldman Sachs analysts noted in a recent note that "a staged reopening leaves supply chains tangled," predicting that output from Gulf producers may reach only 70% of capacity in the first month following a deal.

Exxon, which has significant upstream and refining operations in the region, is adjusting its inventory and logistics plans accordingly. "We're managing our supply chains to account for a gradual ramp-up," Woods added, without specifying production impacts.

Industry Response

Other major oil companies are expected to provide similar outlooks. The gradual recovery contrasts with earlier hopes of an immediate snap-back, underscoring the complexity of restarting operations after a disruption. Shipping firms and insurers are also recalibrating as sanctions and security protocols evolve.

A spokesperson for Exxon said the company would not provide further details on its operational adjustments. Attempts to reach other Gulf producers for comment were unsuccessful.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the timeline for full normalization. The correct estimate is one to two months, not one to three.