• The EIA now projects Strait of Hormuz oil shipments could resume in the third quarter of 2026, but pre-war traffic levels are not expected to return until early 2027.
  • Prediction markets, including Kalshi, assign a 52% chance of normal traffic before October 1, 2026, reflecting a more optimistic view than the official forecast.
  • The disruption continues to keep oil prices and volatility elevated, with implications for global energy markets and supply chains.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) has updated its outlook for the Strait of Hormuz, forecasting that oil shipments through the critical chokepoint could resume in Q3 2026. However, the agency warned that a full return to pre-war traffic volumes will likely take until early 2027, indicating a gradual normalization process. The new timeline reflects ongoing security risks and infrastructure challenges in the region.

Meanwhile, traders on the prediction market Kalshi are betting on a faster resolution, with contracts implying a 52% probability of normal traffic before October 1, 2026. This divergence between official forecasts and market sentiment has added uncertainty to an already volatile oil market.

The Strait of Hormuz disruption, which began amid rising Middle East tensions, has kept global oil prices elevated and freight costs high. The EIA's projection suggests that while shipping may restart within months, physical recovery in production and refining capacity will lag. According to people familiar with the matter, mine clearance and port readiness remain key bottlenecks, with insurance premiums for tankers likely to stay elevated through late 2026.

“The market is pricing in a quicker resolution than what the EIA sees, but the reality is that logistics and security will take time to normalize,” said a senior analyst at a European energy consultancy, who declined to be named. “Even if traffic resumes, it will be a slow ramp-up, not a sudden switch.”

Industry participants are closely watching the pace of recovery, as energy-intensive sectors—from airlines to manufacturing—face ongoing cost pressures. The IEA has echoed the EIA's cautious stance, noting that full normalization of global trade patterns may not occur until 2027. In a recent note, S&P Global highlighted that port congestion and inventory rebuilding could extend the timeline.

The situation remains fluid, with diplomatic efforts and security developments potentially accelerating or delaying the resumption of flows. For now, the market is caught between official caution and trader optimism, a gap that is likely to fuel continued volatility in oil prices.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the Kalshi probability. It is 52%, not two-thirds.