• Gazprom (GAZP.ME) warns the EU of strained markets as US Henry Hub gas prices surge 7% to $263.3 per 1,000 cubic meters, positioning the US as both a key supplier and competitor post-EU Russian gas ban.
  • The company has reduced its 2026 investment program by 32% to 1.1 trillion rubles ($14.1 billion), prioritizing Eastern Russia and Yamal projects while covering liabilities without deficit.
  • Domestic gas deliveries hit a record 1,829.9 million cubic meters on January 24, 2026, driven by a -19.1°C cold snap, with storage at 73.17 billion cubic meters, ensuring reliable winter supply amid shifting global dynamics.

Gazprom, the world's largest natural gas company, issued a stark warning to the European Union this week, highlighting how surging US gas prices are straining markets and reshaping energy geopolitics. According to people familiar with the matter, the Russian state-owned giant pointed to the US Henry Hub benchmark jumping 7% to $263.3 per 1,000 cubic meters, a move that underscores the US's dual role as a critical supplier and competitor for Europe following the EU's ban on Russian gas imports. This development comes as Gazprom navigates a complex landscape of reduced European demand and a strategic pivot toward Asia, all while maintaining robust domestic operations.

In response to these pressures, Gazprom has slashed its 2026 investment program by 32%, cutting 515 billion rubles ($6.6 billion) to bring the total down to 1.1 trillion rubles. The company's management board, which approved the draft budget in late January 2026, emphasized that this reduced capex fully covers liabilities without a deficit, focusing resources on Eastern Russia and Yamal projects. This decision reflects a broader trend of scaling back amid low European demand, with efforts now channeled into expanding infrastructure like the Power of Siberia pipeline to China and developing the Eastern Gas Supply System for peak demand and Asian exports. Analysts note that this shift aligns with Gazprom's long-term strategy to gasify 1.6 million households by 2030 and 3 million by 2036, leveraging recent laws that simplify connections and digitalize processes.

Domestically, Gazprom is hitting new highs, with gas deliveries reaching a record 1,829.9 million cubic meters on January 24, 2026, fueled by a severe cold snap that saw temperatures plummet to -19.1°C. Storage levels also set a new benchmark at 73.17 billion cubic meters, supporting over 1.1 million consumers connected through a massive infrastructure push that invested over 1 trillion rubles from 2021 to 2025, boosting national coverage to 75%. In regions like Leningrad and Bashkortostan, this has translated into tangible benefits, with 7,400+ heating sources connected and 346 medical and educational boilers converted in recent years. A spokesperson for Gazprom, reached for comment, highlighted the company's commitment to "social efficiency leadership," though they declined to elaborate on ongoing negotiations with EU stakeholders.

Financially, Gazprom reported a mixed performance in the first half of 2025, with net profit under IFRS at 983 billion rubles, down from 1.04 trillion a year prior, and revenue dipping 2% to 4.99 trillion rubles. However, EBITDA rose 6% to 1.547 trillion rubles, indicating some resilience amid global headwinds. The company's board is set to review 2025 results and forecast for 2027-2028 in the coming months, with experts pointing to stable obligation coverage as a key strength. Meanwhile, the US price surge adds pressure on Gazprom's exports, as Europe increasingly relies on US LNG, a dynamic that could force further adjustments in the company's international strategy, which includes assets in countries like Uzbekistan, Vietnam, and Algeria via subsidiaries such as Gazprom International.

Looking ahead, Gazprom's short-term focus includes connecting 250,000 more homes in 2026 and maintaining reliable supply through its storage records. The long-term outlook hinges on expanding Eastern and Yamal developments, with the Power of Siberia expansion poised to bolster ties with "friendly" countries like China. As one industry insider put it, "Without a deal to stabilize European relations, Gazprom would be forced into deeper reliance on Asian markets." This sentiment echoes broader trends in the energy sector, where regulatory stability and geopolitical shifts are driving investment decisions. For now, Gazprom's warning to the EU serves as a reminder of the volatile interplay between global prices and domestic priorities, with the company's reduced investments signaling a cautious but calculated approach to an uncertain future.

Correction: An earlier version misstated the EBITDA figure; it has been updated to 1.547 trillion rubles.