• TD Cowen raises its global GLP-1 sales forecast to $150 billion by 2030, up from $139 billion, driven by stronger demand for diabetes and obesity treatments.
  • The firm projects 59 million patients on GLP-1 therapies by 2030, with oral weight-loss drugs capturing 14% of sales.
  • Eli Lilly (LLY) and Novo Nordisk (NVO) are expected to maintain dominance with market shares of 62% and 31%, respectively.

A Bullish Outlook for GLP-1 Therapies

TD Cowen has significantly boosted its forecast for the GLP-1 market, now expecting global sales to reach $150 billion by 2030. The revision from $139 billion reflects accelerating uptake of diabetes and obesity treatments, with the analyst firm projecting 59 million patients on GLP-1 therapies by the end of the decade. The report highlights the growing potential of oral weight-loss drugs, which are anticipated to account for 14% of total sales as they lower barriers to adoption.

Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk remain the dominant players, with TD Cowen estimating their combined market share at over 90%. Lilly's tirzepatide-based therapies, Mounjaro and Zepbound, have driven its share to 62%, while Novo Nordisk's semaglutide portfolio, including Ozempic and Wegovy, holds 31%. The stronghold of these two companies underscores the concentrated nature of the GLP-1 market, though oral formulations could reshape the competitive landscape.

“We’re seeing a paradigm shift in metabolic care,” said a healthcare analyst familiar with the research. “Oral GLP-1 options could expand the addressable market significantly, especially if they overcome adherence and cost barriers.” The forecast assumes continued payer support and regulatory approvals for new indications, though pricing pressure and supply constraints remain risks.

The updated outlook comes amid a broader wave of investment in obesity and diabetes therapies, with companies racing to develop next-generation treatments. TD Cowen’s projections align with industry trends showing robust demand, but the path to $150 billion depends on factors like global reimbursement policies and manufacturing scale. As competition heats up, the market could see further revisions—up or down—in the years ahead.