• Gold could reach $5,000 by year-end despite volatility tied to U.S.-Iran peace prospects, according to ING analysts.
  • Short-term moves remain driven by macro factors like real yields, the dollar, and Federal Reserve expectations, but easing headwinds should restore underlying support.
  • Markets are now focused on Tuesday's U.S. CPI data for rate outlook clues; gold futures rose 0.1% to $4,736 an ounce.

Gold prices are poised to hit $5,000 an ounce by the end of the year, ING analysts said, even as short-term swings hinge on macro drivers and geopolitical developments. The metal's rally, which has seen it trade around the mid-$4,700s, is underpinned by a mix of safe-haven demand, central-bank buying, and expectations that interest rate headwinds will ease.

"We see gold reaching $5,000 by year-end," ING wrote in a note, citing a lasting resolution to the Iran conflict as a key trigger for sustained gains. Without a deal, the metal's ascent could be volatile, but the overall trajectory remains bullish. The analysts emphasized that near-term price action is driven by real yields, the dollar, and Fed policy signals, with Tuesday's U.S. CPI report likely to provide the next catalyst. Gold futures edged up 0.1% to $4,736 an ounce on Monday.

The Iran situation remains a wild card. Escalation could amplify safe-haven flows, while a detente might initially pressure prices before allowing macro fundamentals to reassert themselves. "The Iran risk is a major factor, but we think the underlying support from central-bank buying and inflation hedging will prevail," ING said.

Central banks have been net buyers since 2022, and despite some moderation, that trend continues to provide a floor. Meanwhile, higher oil prices and sticky inflation could temper rate-cut expectations, which would support gold by keeping real yields low. "If inflation remains stubborn, gold benefits," a market strategist said, noting that the interplay between energy costs and monetary policy is central to the narrative.

Investors are now eyeing the CPI print for clues on the Fed's next move. A hot number could spark a dollar rally and weigh on gold in the short term, but ING argues that any dip would be buying opportunity. "The path to $5,000 is not linear, but the direction is clear," they added.

We reached out to ING for additional comment but did not receive a response by press time.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the price level. Gold futures were at $4,736, not $4,736. The error has been corrected.