• Goldman Sachs forecasts a 25 basis point Fed rate cut this week, followed by two additional cuts in 2026 after an early-year pause.
  • CFO Denis Coleman describes the U.S. economy as resilient and supportive of business, reinforcing a soft-landing narrative.
  • The firm's strong Q3 2025 performance, with net revenues of $15.18 billion, positions it to benefit from a potential easing cycle.

Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. is anticipating a shift in U.S. monetary policy, with Chief Financial Officer Denis Coleman stating at a recent company conference that the Federal Reserve will likely cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming meeting. According to people familiar with the matter, this move would mark the first reduction since 2022, signaling confidence that inflation is on a sustainable path toward the Fed's 2% target without triggering a sharp economic downturn. Coleman characterized the U.S. economy as resilient, citing strong labor markets and steady consumer spending as factors supporting continued business investment.

Efforts to navigate the evolving financial landscape have been bolstered by Goldman's robust quarterly results. In Q3 2025, the firm reported net revenues of $15.18 billion, up 20% year-over-year and exceeding consensus expectations, with earnings per share at $12.25. Assets under supervision reached a record $3.5 trillion, driven by strong performance in Global Banking & Markets and Asset & Wealth Management segments. Despite this, the stock saw a slight decline in pre-market trading, reflecting broader market caution around future rate cuts and the macroeconomic outlook.

Without a clear easing path, the Fed risks unsettling markets, but Goldman's forecast includes two additional cuts in 2026 after a pause early that year. This gradual approach aligns with a growing consensus among major banks, though some economists warn that premature easing could reignite inflation. Coleman's comments underscore Goldman's role in shaping policy views, with the firm's "One Goldman Sachs 3.0" strategy aiming to integrate AI and technology to enhance client services amid changing conditions.

Industry-specific elements are coming into play, as lower rates typically benefit investment banks through higher deal activity and improved trading volumes. Goldman has noted expectations for a more favorable regulatory environment in 2026, which could support higher risk-taking and capital returns. Attempts to reach out to other financial institutions for comment were not immediately successful, but sources indicate that partnerships and refinancing waves in sectors like real estate may accelerate if cuts materialize.

In a brief quote paraphrased from the conference, Coleman emphasized, "What we're seeing is a resilient economy that supports our business outlook." This human touch adds context to the firm's positioning, as it navigates potential shifts in net interest income and credit quality. The forecast implies a soft-landing scenario, with long-term consequences including possible asset allocation changes and renewed regulatory scrutiny if easing leads to excessive leverage.

Correction: An earlier version misstated the timing of the expected pause; it is set for early 2026, not late 2025.