• Goldman Sachs maintains its Q3 2026 TTF gas forecast at €60/MWh but flags significant upside risks.
  • A successful U.S.-Iran deal could push prices below €50/MWh, while a slow recovery of Middle East exports may send December 2026 TTF above €100/MWh.
  • The outlook hinges on LNG normalization and geopolitical developments in the Middle East.

Goldman Sachs has kept its third-quarter 2026 Dutch TTF gas price forecast at €60 per megawatt-hour, but the bank warns that risks are heavily tilted to the upside. In a note to clients, analysts highlighted a bifurcated outlook shaped by the pace of Middle East supply recovery and the outcome of U.S.-Iran negotiations.

If U.S.-Iran talks succeed and LNG flows resume more quickly, TTF prices could weaken toward or below €50/MWh. However, if Middle East energy exports recover only gradually through 2027, December 2026 TTF prices could jump above €100/MWh, underscoring a potential extreme upside scenario. The base case remains that near-term prices stay elevated due to supply dynamics and delayed LNG normalization.

“The market is pricing in a gradual recovery, but the range of outcomes is unusually wide,” said a Goldman Sachs analyst, speaking on condition of anonymity. The bank’s scenario analysis reflects persistent energy security concerns and supply bottlenecks in the Strait of Hormuz, which could sustain elevated prices in Europe.

The implications are significant for European industries and households. Higher TTF forecasts feed into electricity and gas pricing, influencing industrial costs, household energy bills, and inflation metrics. Energy-intensive industries, utilities, and governments face shifts in energy costs and inflation risk.

Goldman’s note comes amid heightened geopolitical tensions and ongoing European energy market reforms. The bank has revisited its forecasts several times in 2025–2026 to reflect evolving risk scenarios. Other banks and energy analysts have similarly flagged upside risks linked to Hormuz-related disruptions and LNG market normalization timelines.

A spokesperson for Goldman Sachs declined to comment further. Efforts to reach the bank for additional details were unsuccessful.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the forecast period. The Q3 2026 forecast is for the quarter ending September 2026, not the full year.