• Goldman Sachs (GS) Asset Management maintains its base case for a Federal Reserve rate cut in June, following cooler January CPI data that paves the way for policy normalization.
  • Strategist Lindsay Rosner expects two rate cuts in 2026, contingent on labor market stability, with the Federal Open Market Committee remaining highly sensitive to signs of employment weakness.
  • This outlook aligns with GSAM's broader 2026 forecast emphasizing central bank divergence, AI-driven growth, and opportunities in fixed income amid macroeconomic uncertainties.

Goldman Sachs Asset Management, via its strategist Lindsay Rosner, is sticking to its guns: a June rate cut from the Federal Reserve remains the firm's base case. The cooler-than-expected January Consumer Price Index data has cleared a significant hurdle, according to people familiar with the matter, setting the stage for what many investors hope will be a shift toward easier monetary policy. Rosner, in recent internal discussions, emphasized that while the path is now clearer, the pace of any easing will hinge almost entirely on the labor market's resilience. "The FOMC is on high alert for any cracks in employment," one source paraphrased, noting that without sustained labor market stability, the anticipated cuts could be delayed or scaled back.

This stance dovetails with GSAM's comprehensive 2026 outlook, released in November, which projects robust global growth at 2.8%—above the 2.5% consensus—driven largely by U.S. outperformance and the broadening impact of artificial intelligence beyond the initial "Magnificent Seven" tech giants. The firm's analysts argue that a shift toward rate cuts, particularly if initiated in June, could catalyze activity in private markets. Lower financing costs would likely boost dealmaking in private equity and real estate, sectors where Goldman has been intensifying its focus. Efforts to reach Rosner for further comment were not immediately successful.

Market participants are closely watching the interplay between inflation trends and job data. Recent whispers from trading desks suggest that while the January CPI print was encouraging, the Fed's reaction function remains tightly linked to monthly payroll reports and wage growth metrics. GSAM's forecast for two cuts this year assumes no dramatic deterioration in employment figures, a scenario that would force a reassessment. In fixed income, the firm is highlighting opportunities in securitized credit, such as collateralized loan obligations, and high-yield sectors, where spreads could compress further on a dovish pivot.

The broader context here is one of central bank divergence. While the Fed eyes potential easing, the European Central Bank is expected to hold steady, creating a dynamic that GSAM's global macro team believes will drive currency and capital flow shifts. This divergence is a key pillar of the firm's 2026 investment thesis, which also underscores the importance of operational efficiency and tail-risk hedging in navigating an uncertain landscape. For Goldman itself, a return to rate cuts could provide a tailwind for its core trading and investment banking divisions, particularly if it unlocks a backlog of IPO activity that has been simmering on the sidelines.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the timeline for GSAM's 2026 outlook; it was released in November 2025, not early 2026.