• Google is under EU scrutiny for alleged non-compliance with Digital Markets Act rules regarding Google Play billing and steering practices.
  • A fine could be imposed in the first quarter of 2026, potentially reaching up to 10% of Google's global revenue.
  • Google may adjust its policies further to mitigate or avoid the penalty, according to sources familiar with the matter.

EU regulators are preparing to fine Google over Google Play violations, with sources indicating a decision could come as early as the first quarter of 2026. The European Commission is examining whether recent changes to Google's "user choice billing" system still restrict app developers from properly directing users to alternative payment options and fee models, as required under the Digital Markets Act (DMA).

According to people familiar with the investigation, Brussels views these adjustments as insufficient, potentially leading to a significant financial penalty. Google, a subsidiary of Alphabet Inc., has faced repeated antitrust actions in Europe, including a €2.95 billion fine in 2025 for ad tech abuses, underscoring the regulatory risks it navigates. The company, led by CEO Sundar Pichai, may introduce further policy tweaks to address the Commission's concerns, though efforts to restructure its compliance approach have hit a snag.

In a brief statement, a Google spokesperson said, "We continue to engage constructively with the European Commission to ensure our practices align with regulatory expectations." Attempts to reach additional company representatives for comment were unsuccessful. The case reflects a broader global shift toward tighter app store regulation, affecting not only Google but also Apple (AAPL), as developers push for lower commissions and more billing freedom.

Market analysts note that while a fine could be material, it is unlikely to threaten Alphabet's solvency, given its strong revenue growth from search, YouTube, and cloud services. However, it adds to regulatory costs and investor uncertainty. The EU's aggressive enforcement stance signals a test of DMA credibility, with implications for how gatekeeper platforms operate worldwide. Without a deal, Google could face mandated business-model changes that erode its Play Store economics over time.

This development comes amid parallel EU probes into Google's other practices, such as its "site reputation abuse" policy, and ongoing cases against Apple's App Store rules. Internationally, similar debates are unfolding in South Korea, the U.S., and the U.K., suggesting a converging trend toward rebalancing power between app stores and developers. For consumers, the outcome may lead to lower prices or more payment options, though it could also introduce complexities in payment security.

Looking ahead, Google is expected to negotiate with regulators and possibly set aside provisions for the fine. A formal Statement of Objections would precede any final decision, with long-term implications potentially including reduced Google Play revenues and a global template for app store conduct. Analysts anticipate continued regulatory pressure, with modest benefits for developers and consumers, but legal appeals may delay final outcomes.

Correction: An earlier version misstated the timing of a related EU fine; it was imposed in 2025, not 2024.