• EU regulators are preparing a significant fine against Google (GOOG) for allegedly favoring its own services on Google Play and other products, expected in early 2026, under the Digital Markets Act (DMA).
  • A parallel antitrust investigation targets Google's AI services, including AI Overviews and AI Mode in search, focusing on misuse of third-party content and unfair terms for rivals.
  • This follows recent EU actions, including a nearly €3 billion fine in September for digital advertising practices, highlighting ongoing scrutiny of Big Tech dominance in Europe.

Google's efforts to comply with landmark EU rules appear insufficient, according to people familiar with the matter, setting the stage for another major penalty. Sources indicate that Brussels is moving toward a decision and fine in the first quarter of 2026, tied specifically to Google Play's adherence to DMA obligations designed to prevent self-preferencing and ensure fair access for competitors. Without substantial changes, the company could face stricter behavioral remedies that reshape its European operations.

In a related development, the European Commission has opened a new antitrust probe into Google's AI services, investigating whether the tech giant misused content from publishers and YouTube creators to train and power its AI features. This investigation, which began quietly in recent weeks, centers on allegations that Google imposed unfair terms that disadvantage rival AI developers, potentially stifling innovation in the burgeoning AI sector. According to individuals briefed on the matter, regulators are examining if Google gave itself privileged access to online data while forcing others to pay or accept restrictive conditions.

These actions build on a long history of EU enforcement against Google, including fines totaling over €10 billion since 2017 for practices ranging from shopping comparisons to Android pre-installation. The latest nearly €3 billion fine in September targeted Google's digital advertising business, accusing it of steering ad revenue toward its own services. Google has offered remedies in that case, but authorities remain skeptical that past adjustments have fully addressed competition concerns. "We continue to engage constructively with the European Commission to demonstrate our compliance," a Google spokesperson said in a statement, though they declined to comment on the specifics of the ongoing investigations.

Market observers note that the EU's push could fragment Google's integrated ecosystem in Europe, potentially benefiting alternative app stores, search engines, and AI competitors. App developers and publishers have long complained about Google's dominance, with some welcoming the regulatory scrutiny as a chance to level the playing field. However, critics warn that heavy-handed fines and remedies might complicate user interfaces or slow innovation, echoing transatlantic tensions where U.S. politicians have framed such actions as hostile to American tech firms.

Looking ahead, the short-term focus is on the Q1 2026 deadline for the Google Play fine, which may include mandates to alter ranking algorithms, default settings, or billing rules. Meanwhile, the AI probe could lead to further commitments or penalties, reflecting the EU's broader strategy to regulate gatekeepers under the DMA and traditional antitrust rules. As one industry analyst put it, "This isn't just about fines—it's about forcing structural changes that open up digital markets." Updates on the investigations are expected in the coming months, with Google likely to appeal any adverse decisions.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the timing of a prior EU fine; it was imposed in September, not earlier in 2025.