• Kevin Hassett forecasts a return to robust monthly job additions if the U.S. sustains near-4% GDP growth, despite a weak November jobs report showing only 64,000 jobs added and unemployment rising to 4.6%.
  • The White House National Economic Council director attributes recent positive economic trends to tariffs, deportations, and supply-side policies, while downplaying concerns over a "hiring recession" and data reliability issues from a government shutdown.
  • Critics point to rising inflation, softening GDP forecasts, and the highest layoffs since 2020, with the Fed recently cutting rates by 0.25% and another likely soon amid economic uncertainty.

Kevin Hassett, Director of the White House National Economic Council, stated on December 21, 2025, that the U.S. economy could see monthly job gains rebound to 100,000–150,000 if GDP growth stays around 4%. This optimistic projection comes despite a November jobs report that revealed only 64,000 jobs added and unemployment climbing to 4.6%, with some analysts describing a "hiring recession" as layoffs exceeded 1.1 million year-to-date—the highest since 2020.

Hassett emphasized a three-month core CPI average of 1.6%, below the Fed's target, and highlighted construction wage increases of $3,300 annually due to labor scarcity from deportations, which have favored native-born workers with over 2 million gains. "We're seeing structural shifts that could fuel a job recovery if growth holds steady," Hassett said in a recent briefing, though he acknowledged data reliability concerns due to a government shutdown impacting surveys. Efforts to reach other economic advisors for comment were unsuccessful.

Trump's tariffs have reduced China imports to their lowest since WTO entry, narrowing the trade deficit and coinciding with quarters of near-4% GDP growth and government surpluses since July, according to Hassett. This contradicts prior warnings of slowdowns, but critics note rising inflation from 2.3% in April to 3% in September, with November at 2.7% though considered unreliable. GDP forecasts for 2025 range from 1.7% to 2%, down from 2.8% in 2024, adding to the debate over policy impacts.

Mass deportations have reduced foreign-born labor, boosting native wages but shrinking supply, while the Fed cut rates by 0.25% this month amid softening jobs data, with another cut likely soon. Hassett defends Trump policies like tariffs and deportations amid high policy uncertainty, as measured by a spiked Economic Policy Uncertainty Index post-Trump's return, and positions tariffs as antidotes to deficits, eyeing a potential Fed Chair role. Without sustained growth, the economy risks slipping further into a hiring slump, analysts warn.

In the short term, more rate cuts are expected, but the hiring recession persists amid shutdown data gaps. Long-term, tariffs may slow growth to 1.8% next year, per some forecasters, with inflation risks above 2%. Hassett predicts 3% GDP growth and 1% inflation if policies hold, enabling a job rebound, but mainstream skepticism labels his views overly rosy, citing past flawed models and current economic headwinds. Correction: An earlier version misstated the core CPI average; it has been updated to reflect the correct figure of 1.6% over three months.