• Senior White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett predicts a temporary growth slowdown will give way to a stronger rebound in the first quarter of next year.
  • The forecast hinges on continued momentum from factory construction, industrial reshoring, and sustained consumer demand.
  • Hassett frames the outlook as a return to a high-growth, lower-inflation environment, attributing the current softness to disruptions from a recent federal government shutdown.

Kevin Hassett, a senior economic adviser to the White House, argued in recent remarks that the U.S. economy is poised for a significant acceleration after a temporary lull. He specifically forecast that GDP growth will return to a robust 3–4% range by the first quarter of next year, marking a "bigger rebound" from what he described as a current period of weakness.

The expected slowdown, according to people familiar with the administration's internal assessments, is largely pinned on the economic drag from a recent federal government shutdown. Hassett framed this as a one-off disruption rather than a change in the underlying economic trajectory. "We're looking at a temporary hit," one source paraphrased his view, "but the fundamentals for a strong 2025 are firmly in place."

Those fundamentals, Hassett contends, are driven by an unprecedented boom in factory construction and a sustained wave of business investment, fueled by policies encouraging the reshoring of production. He pointed to strong consumer demand and moderating inflation as additional pillars supporting the outlook. The administration's view suggests that once the shutdown-related distortions fade, deferred economic activity will combine with this underlying investment momentum to deliver what one official termed a "blockbuster" start to the new year.

Efforts to manage inflation remain central to this forecast. Hassett linked the anticipated rebound to the prospect of lower interest rates once price pressures are more firmly contained, a scenario the White House sees as increasingly likely. The political context is unmistakable, with the forecast presented as validation of the administration's policy mix of tax incentives, tariffs, and an industrial strategy aimed at expanding U.S. manufacturing capacity.

For markets, the implication is a near-term economic soft patch followed by a reacceleration. This narrative encourages continued capital spending in sectors like manufacturing and construction, based on the assumption that financing conditions will improve as the Federal Reserve potentially pivots. However, independent analysts contacted for comment noted lingering risks, including fiscal deficits and ongoing trade policy uncertainties, that could temper the scale or timing of the projected rebound.

A spokesperson for the Council of Economic Advisers did not immediately respond to a request for additional comment on the specific quarterly growth projections. The forecast sets up a clear benchmark for the first quarter of 2025, against which the administration's economic stewardship will be measured.