• Former White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett projects annual GDP growth of approximately 2% for 2025
  • The forecast aligns with multiple major economic projections despite a strong Q2 performance
  • Economists see growth moderating through 2026 due to persistent interest rates and policy uncertainty

Kevin Hassett, who served as chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Donald Trump, stated in recent remarks that he expects U.S. GDP growth to come in "at about 2%" for the full year 2025. This projection places him squarely within the consensus of mainstream economic forecasters, though it represents a significant moderation from the robust 3.8% annualized growth rate recorded in the second quarter.

Hassett's assessment comes as the economy shows mixed signals. The Q2 surge, driven largely by stronger consumer spending and a sharp drop in imports, temporarily eased recession concerns that had emerged following a contraction in the first quarter. However, most economists view this strength as temporary rather than indicative of a new growth trend.

Multiple forecasting firms have converged around similar numbers for 2025. Trading Economics projects approximately 2.1% growth, while PwC expects "just over 2%" and Deloitte forecasts 1.8%. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters is more cautious at 1.4%, reflecting the range of opinions among experts.

"The underlying momentum remains positive but is clearly losing steam," said one economist familiar with the discussions, who asked not to be identified while private forecasts are being finalized. "The second quarter numbers were stronger than anyone anticipated, but we're seeing the effects of elevated interest rates beginning to bite."

Despite the strong Q2 performance, headwinds are mounting. The Federal Reserve has maintained higher interest rates to combat persistent inflation, while increased tariffs and policy uncertainty have created additional drags on growth. Global factors including rising protectionism and geopolitical tensions are also expected to moderate economic expansion.

Efforts to reach Hassett for additional comment on his projection were unsuccessful. A spokesperson for his current organization did not immediately respond to inquiries about whether his forecast had been updated following the release of Q2 data.

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model currently estimates a robust 4% annualized growth rate for the third quarter, though most economists caution that this strength is unlikely to be sustained through year-end. The consensus view suggests growth will slow further in 2026 before potentially rebounding if financial conditions ease.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the timing of the Q2 GDP release. The data was published last month.