• White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett characterized the recent surge in gasoline prices as a temporary disruption, not a lasting trend.
  • Market analysts tie the spike to supply bottlenecks, including refinery outages and geopolitical tensions, with expectations of a retreat once operations normalize.
  • The assessment aligns with historical patterns of episodic price volatility that typically revert as supply chains stabilize.

Temporary Shock, Not a Trend

Kevin Hassett, director of the White House National Economic Council, said on Thursday that the sharp rise in gasoline prices over the past two weeks is likely a short-term disruption driven by supply constraints. "What we're seeing is a temporary blip, not a structural shift," Hassett told reporters. He emphasized that the administration is monitoring the situation but expects prices to moderate as refinery output recovers and shipping bottlenecks ease.

The remarks come amid a 12% spike at the pump since early March, with the national average hitting $3.85 per gallon, according to AAA. The jump has stirred consumer anxiety and drawn criticism from lawmakers, but Hassett insisted the fundamentals remain sound. "The market is reacting to specific, isolated events, not a long-term imbalance," he said.

Supply-Side Pressure

Industry sources point to a confluence of factors behind the run-up: unplanned refinery maintenance in the Gulf Coast, tighter crude supplies due to OPEC+ cuts, and lingering effects of Red Sea shipping diversions. However, they note that gasoline inventories, while below the five-year average, are not critically low. "Once those refineries come back online, we should see prices normalize within a few weeks," said a fuel trader who asked not to be named.

The White House has faced pressure to tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve or waive summertime fuel-blend rules, but Hassett suggested such measures are premature. "We have tools available if needed, but the data doesn't warrant them right now," he said.

Historical Context

The pattern of temporary gasoline price spikes followed by reversion is well documented. During the 2022 Russia-Ukraine shock, prices surged above $5 before retreating as supply chains adjusted. Similarly, refinery outages in 2019 and 2021 caused brief jumps. "The market has a strong self-correcting mechanism," said energy analyst Mark Finley of Rice University. "Unless there's a sustained supply disruption, these moves tend to unwind."

Still, some caution that geopolitical risks, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz, could prolong the disruption. A senior administration official said the U.S. is in constant dialogue with allies to ensure freedom of navigation.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the national average gasoline price. It is $3.85, not $3.95.