• Multiple trade deals expected to finalize once "megabill" clears Congress.
  • Up to 60 trading partners face 50% tariffs without agreements.
  • Administration forecasts GDP growth "way north" of 3% in late 2025.

Trade Deals Hinge on Tax Bill Passage

National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett revealed that the Trump administration has at least three trade agreements in advanced stages, with more expected shortly after Congress passes the sweeping tax and budget legislation. The administration has warned nearly 60 trading partners they could face reciprocal tariffs as high as 50% unless deals are reached.

"We're at the finish line on several agreements," Hassett told reporters, framing the pending deals as economic accelerants that would complement the tax cuts. Market analysts suggest the administration is using the threat of tariffs as leverage to push both international partners and domestic legislators toward compromise.

Courts and Congress Complicate Timeline

Recent legal challenges have temporarily blocked some tariffs, with one federal court ruling the administration overstepped its authority. Hassett dismissed these setbacks as minor delays, expressing confidence in appellate victories. Meanwhile, Senate opposition to the "megabill" from both conservative and progressive factions has created uncertainty about the legislation's timeline.

The administration has ramped up pressure on lawmakers by suggesting failure to pass the bill could trigger a recession. "We're looking at the biggest tax hike in history if this doesn't move forward," Hassett said, though some economists dispute this characterization. The strategy appears designed to create urgency around both domestic legislation and international negotiations.

China Talks Show Early Progress

In one notable development, U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods have already been reduced from 145% to 30% following intensive negotiations. A 90-day reprieve is now in effect while final terms are hammered out. Business groups have welcomed the de-escalation but remain cautious about long-term stability in U.S.-China trade relations.

Hassett projected robust economic expansion in late 2025 if both the tax cuts and trade deals take effect, suggesting GDP growth could exceed 4%. Private sector forecasts remain more conservative, with many analysts questioning whether the anticipated deals will materialize as quickly as promised. Supply chain managers and export-dependent industries continue operating in a state of heightened uncertainty, with some delaying major investments until the policy landscape becomes clearer.