• Kevin Hassett, head of the National Economic Council, argues a wave of new factory construction and reshoring projects is building "massive momentum" for the U.S. economy into next year.
  • He points to dozens of recent factory groundbreakings, strong recent GDP prints near 4%, and robust job creation as evidence that manufacturing-led growth will strengthen in late 2025 and into 2026.
  • The bullish outlook is tied to pro-business tax policy, including full expensing for capital investment, and trade measures, with Hassett framing the growth as non-inflationary "supply-side" expansion from new capacity.

Kevin Hassett is making the case that the U.S. economy is on the cusp of a powerful, manufacturing-driven upswing. In recent remarks, the head of the National Economic Council has pointed to a surge in factory groundbreakings—many in advanced manufacturing, energy, and clean-tech supply chains—as the foundation for sustained growth well into 2026.

"We have massive momentum into next year," Hassett has argued, linking the activity directly to the current administration's economic agenda. He cites pro-business tax policy, such as full expensing for capital investment, alongside trade measures and plans for further regulatory changes as the catalysts for what he describes as a "factory boom." This wave of new capacity, he suggests, will begin hiring in large numbers as facilities come online, powering growth that could see GDP approach 4% in late 2025.

The narrative arrives amid a complex backdrop for U.S. industry. While large-scale industrial projects, particularly in semiconductors and batteries, continue to advance, broader manufacturing data has shown signs of pressure, including contractionary readings in key purchasing managers' indexes. Hassett's argument seeks to bridge this gap by framing current strength as a leading indicator. The growth, he contends, is "supply-side" in nature—driven by new productive capacity rather than inflationary overheating—which could allow for stronger expansion without the typical price pressures.

Hassett's rising profile adds a significant layer to the story. Markets increasingly handicap him as a leading contender to be nominated as the next Federal Reserve chair, a prospect that would signal a more aggressively pro-growth and potentially rate-cutting stance from the central bank. Such a shift would likely reinforce the very investment cycle he is championing, particularly for capital-intensive sectors. Administration officials, speaking on background, confirm that internal forecasts are being revised upward based on the pipeline of concrete industrial projects, not just announcements.

Of course, the outlook is not without its skeptics. Some economists question the durability of the boom, pointing to regional disparities and the potential for trade frictions stemming from protective tariffs to eventually dampen activity. Others note that while groundbreaking ceremonies are visible, the timeline from construction to full production and hiring is often measured in years, meaning the most significant labor market impacts may still be ahead. A spokesperson for a major manufacturing trade group, when reached for comment, echoed cautious optimism but stressed that access to skilled workers and consistent policy will be critical to realizing the potential.

For now, Hassett and aligned analysts are betting that the confluence of policy, private investment, and a potential shift in monetary policy will create a self-reinforcing cycle. The coming months will be a key test, as the first of these high-profile facilities move from construction to operation. If hiring meets projections, the "massive momentum" thesis could gain substantial credence, reshaping expectations for the economic trajectory deep into 2026.

Correction: An earlier version of this article imprecisely characterized the timing of GDP growth projections. Hassett's comments specifically reference late 2025 and into 2026.