• Middle East Gulf crude exports remain constrained despite a four-day halt in US strikes on Iran.
  • Vessel clearances stay near recent lows, with Gulf loading activity down by more than half.
  • Security risks, elevated war-risk insurance and Iranian interdictions continue to throttle outbound flows.

Bottleneck Persists

Crude exports from the Middle East Gulf remain under severe pressure, even after a four-day pause in US military strikes on Iran, according to tanker-tracking firm Kpler. Vessel clearances through the Strait of Hormuz have stayed near the depressed levels seen during the peak of hostilities, while overall loading activity in the Gulf has fallen by more than half compared with pre-crisis averages.

“Security risks, higher war-risk insurance and Iranian interdictions continue to restrict exports,” Kpler said in a note. Ship-to-ship transfers have helped ease storage constraints but have done little to boost actual supply reaching global markets, the data provider added.

The ongoing bottlenecks underscore the fragility of the world’s most important oil chokepoint, through which about a fifth of global petroleum consumption flows. Even with a temporary de-escalation in direct strikes, the threat of Iranian patrol boats and the cost of insuring vessels have kept many tanker operators away.

“Without a lasting security guarantee, shipping lines are reluctant to commit to Hormuz transits,” said a Gulf-based shipping source, asking not to be named because they were not authorized to speak to the press. “We have seen some owners divert to longer routes around Africa, but that adds time and expense.”

Market Impact

Oil prices have remained volatile, with Brent crude hovering near $90 a barrel as traders assess the duration of the disruption. Analysts say that even a partial reopening would require credible insurance terms and naval escorts, both of which remain uncertain.

“The risk premium on Gulf crude has expanded significantly,” said a Singapore-based oil analyst. “Until there is a diplomatic framework that addresses both security and insurance, we expect tight supply conditions to persist.”

Efforts to resume normal shipping have hit a snag, with talks between Iran and the US yet to show progress. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has continued to demand tolls from passing vessels, according to people familiar with the matter.

We reached out to the US Fifth Fleet and Iran’s oil ministry for comment but did not receive a response by the time of publication.

Outlook

For now, the market is bracing for a prolonged period of reduced flows. Kpler noted that while a sustained diplomatic breakthrough could ease bottlenecks quickly, “the current trajectory suggests a slow and uncertain normalization.”

Clarification: An earlier version of this article misstated the duration of the strike pause. It is four days, not five. The article has been corrected.