• Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz slowed Friday as shipowners stay cautious despite a US-Iran agreement to ease a dual blockade.
  • Around 40 VLCCs carrying roughly 80 million barrels of crude are ready to sail, pending secure passage.
  • Oil prices and freight rates remain volatile as markets weigh the credibility of reopening efforts.

Cautious Resumption

Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained sporadic on Friday, as shipowners and insurers continued to assess risk perceptions following a US-Iran deal to ease a dual blockade. While some vessels resumed movement, safety concerns—including potential mines and uncertain Iranian controls—kept many ships waiting. According to people familiar with the matter, around 40 very large crude carriers carrying nearly 80 million barrels of crude are prepared to sail if a secure passage can be confirmed.

“The situation is fluid, and we're advising clients to remain cautious until clear security guarantees are in place,” said a senior maritime risk analyst. The strait, a critical chokepoint for about 20% of global oil transit, has seen heightened tensions in recent weeks.

Market Volatility

The constrained traffic has already rippled through energy markets. Oil prices increased by about 2% on Friday, while freight rates for tankers have risen sharply as traders factor in higher insurance costs and rerouting risks. “Without a credible reopening, we could see sustained upward pressure on crude and shipping costs,” warned an energy trader at a major trading house.

Industry bodies have repeatedly warned that ongoing risk in the strait affects rates, insurance costs, and routing decisions. The International Association of Independent Tanker Owners reported that war-risk premiums for transiting the strait have quadrupled.

Political and Historical Context

The Hormuz situation sits at the intersection of US-Iran tensions and regional security calculations. Past episodes, such as the 2019 tanker seizures and broader naval confrontations, have shown how quickly disruptions can escalate. While the latest deal aims to de-escalate, shipowners remain skeptical. “Trust takes time to rebuild, especially after repeated incidents,” noted a security consultant.

Attempts to reach the US Navy's Fifth Fleet and Iran's Ports and Maritime Organization for comment were unsuccessful.

Outlook

Short term, traffic is likely to remain intermittent as stakeholders await clearer security assurances. If credible guarantees materialize, a gradual normalization could occur, but the pace will hinge on sustained political stability. Analysts pegged a 60% chance that full traffic resumption will take at least two weeks.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the number of VLCCs as 50. It is 40.