• The IAEA warns that the risk of Iran secretly developing nuclear weapons has increased since the June 2025 US-Israeli strikes.
  • Inspectors no longer regularly verify Iran's near-bomb-grade uranium, and access to key sites like Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan remains blocked.
  • The IAEA says the material cannot be fully accounted for, raising proliferation concerns as monitoring gaps widen.

The United Nations' nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, has sounded the alarm that the risk of Iran covertly pursuing a nuclear weapon has risen significantly since the US-Israeli airstrikes in June 2025. According to people familiar with the matter, IAEA inspectors have been unable to conduct regular verification of Iran's stockpile of near-bomb-grade enriched uranium, with access to key facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan still restricted. The agency warned that the material cannot be fully accounted for, heightening proliferation risks.

"The loss of continuity of knowledge is a serious concern," said a senior IAEA official, speaking on condition of anonymity. "Without regular inspections, we cannot be sure that all nuclear material is being used for peaceful purposes." The agency has repeatedly sought access but has been rebuffed, according to internal reports.

The strikes, which targeted enrichment infrastructure, have disrupted both operations and verification efforts. While Iran maintains its program is peaceful, the lack of transparency has fueled international anxiety. "This is a precarious situation," noted a European diplomat involved in non-proliferation efforts. "The window for a diplomatic solution is narrowing."

Market implications are already being felt. Oil prices edged higher on the news, with Brent crude gaining 1.2% to $87.50 a barrel, as traders priced in heightened geopolitical risk. Shipping insurers have also raised premiums for vessels transiting the Persian Gulf. Analysts warn that without a swift return to inspections, the risk of miscalculation or escalation remains elevated.

Efforts to restart negotiations under the JCPOA framework have stalled, with both sides blaming each other for the impasse. The IAEA has called for restraint and urged Iran to cooperate fully. "The agency stands ready to resume its verification activities," the official added. "But time is not on our side."

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the date of the strikes as May 2025. The correct month is June 2025.