• US Energy Secretary Chris Wright says Iran could be weeks away from producing weapons-grade uranium.
  • Iran's enrichment at 60% brings it alarmingly close to the 90% threshold for weapons-grade material.
  • The warning underscores heightened proliferation risks amid reduced international monitoring.

A Critical Threshold

Iran is "frighteningly close" to achieving the capability to produce weapons-grade uranium, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright told lawmakers, according to people familiar with the matter. "They could be weeks away from reaching weapons-grade enrichment," Wright said, though he noted that weaponization would still be required afterward. Iran's current enrichment level of 60% at facilities in Natanz and Fordow places it much closer to the 90% needed for a nuclear weapon, calling the situation "very concerning."

Escalation and Verification Gaps

The development follows years of Iran expanding its enrichment program after the United States withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in 2018. Since 2021, Iran has reduced cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency, limiting monitoring access and complicating efforts to verify its activities. The IAEA has expressed alarm over growing stockpiles and enrichment capacity, with breakout times shrinking further as Iran installs advanced centrifuges.

Implications for Markets and Security

The proximity to a weapons-grade threshold heightens geopolitical risk premiums in the Middle East, particularly for oil and gas markets. Traders are closely watching for potential supply disruptions or sanctions escalation. The warning comes amid stalled negotiations between Iran and world powers, with regional actors like Israel and Gulf states ramping up security consultations.

Reactions and Next Steps

Efforts to reach the White House for comment were unsuccessful. However, analysts suggest the situation could spur renewed diplomatic engagement or, alternatively, more stringent sanctions. The IAEA is expected to issue a new report on Iran's compliance in coming weeks. Without a credible verification mechanism, the risk of miscalculation on both sides will remain elevated.

Correction: An earlier version of this article incorrectly stated that Wright referenced IAEA findings directly. The information is based on his remarks to lawmakers.