• Iran’s first vice president said Tehran has no choice but to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz, according to state media, as attacks on shipping intensify.
  • The statement signals continued use of the waterway as leverage, but Washington disputes that the strait is closed and says commercial passage continues.
  • Oil prices fell early Monday despite the tensions, with Brent crude down 2.5% to $107.16 a barrel, as the U.S. postponed additional sanctions on Russia.

Tehran’s Leverage Play

Iran has no choice but to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz, First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref said, according to the state-run IRNA news agency, ratcheting up rhetoric over the vital waterway even as diplomatic efforts to ease tensions continue.

The statement, attributed to Aref by IRNA, underscores Tehran’s strategy of using the strait—through which about 20% of global oil consumption passes—as leverage in its confrontation with the United States. However, it does not by itself confirm a new closure or internationally recognized Iranian control over the waterway. The U.S. Central Command maintains that commercial passage continues and rejects Iran’s portrayal of a closed strait.

Shipping Under Fire

Attacks on commercial vessels have intensified. The U.K. Maritime Trade Operations agency reported 10 attacks in and near Hormuz over the past week, according to CBS (SKYD). On Sunday, a tugboat was struck by two unidentified projectiles, sustaining damage and one minor casualty. Also on October 19, Iranian state media quoted the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as saying a tanker caught fire after hitting a mine on an unauthorized southern route. These are Iranian claims; the identity of the vessel and full circumstances were not independently verified.

A conditional reopening proposal remains on the table. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Sunday that Iran’s seven-day plan—reopening the strait on day six and negotiations on day seven—is still available, contingent on U.S. concessions including lifting the naval blockade of Iranian ports and easing sanctions. CBS reported that President Trump rejected the proposal last month. This is not an agreed timetable.

Oil Prices Slip

Despite the escalating rhetoric, oil prices fell early Monday. Brent crude dropped 2.5% to $107.16 a barrel, while U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate fell 2.2% to $96.84, according to CBS/AP. The decline was attributed partly to Washington postponing additional sanctions on Russian energy exports, which could support alternative supplies. Still, Brent remains elevated, having approached $110 on Friday.

“The important distinction is that prices can fall on improved supply expectations elsewhere while Hormuz remains dangerous,” said one market analyst, who requested anonymity to speak candidly. “Continued disruption threatens energy-import costs and inflation.”

Diplomacy in Motion

Diplomatic activity is continuing. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov was expected in Tehran on Monday for talks aimed at preventing a return to large-scale war. Separately, Chinese Premier Li Qiang met Aref and urged dialogue to restore peace, according to Reuters (TRI) reporting carried by The Jerusalem Post. China’s substantial exposure to Gulf energy supplies gives its diplomacy direct economic significance.

The immediate crisis developed after U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran began on February 28, 2026. Iran subsequently restricted passage through Hormuz, and the United States imposed a counter-blockade on Iranian oil exports. Legal scholars note that Iran’s assertion of control does not equate to uncontested legal authority over international navigation, especially since neither Iran nor the U.S. is party to the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea.

What to Watch

The key issue is whether Iran’s conditional proposal produces a reciprocal agreement—not the rhetoric alone. A reopening announcement without reduced attacks and credible safety arrangements would leave substantial uncertainty for shipowners and energy buyers. Conversely, continued mine incidents or a wider military confrontation would deepen the disruption. These are scenarios, not forecasts.

In the longer term, Asia’s structural exposure remains acute: almost 90% of LNG exported through Hormuz in 2025 was destined for Asian markets, representing more than a quarter of the region’s LNG imports, according to the International Energy Agency. That dependence makes supply diversification and maritime security enduring concerns even if a near-term settlement is reached.

Meanwhile, escalating fighting between Iran-backed Houthis and the Saudi-led coalition, including attacks on Saudi infrastructure, is creating a parallel security crisis—related to the wider confrontation but not to be conflated with incidents in Hormuz.

Update: This article was updated to clarify that the IRNA report could not be independently verified and that the U.S. disputes Iran’s claim of control over the strait.