• Iran has intensified attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, pushing for ships to use its approved routing.
  • Traffic is recovering but increasingly shifting to the U.S.-backed Omani corridor, splitting shipping patterns.
  • Oil prices edged up modestly as markets bet supply will keep flowing despite renewed risks.

Renewed Pressure in the Strait

Iran has stepped up attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, part of a campaign to reassert control over the critical waterway. Tehran wants vessels to use its designated route, but more ships are opting for the alternative Omani corridor supported by the United States, according to people familiar with the matter.

“This is a clear attempt to dictate terms in the Strait,” said a Gulf-based shipping executive, speaking on condition of anonymity. “But traffic is finding ways around it.”

The attacks have included small boat swarms and drones targeting tankers and cargo ships, though no major casualties or spills have been reported. Some vessels have reported near-misses, according to maritime security advisories.

Market Reaction Muted So Far

Oil prices rose less than 1% on the news, with Brent crude trading near $83 a barrel. Traders appear to be betting that global supply will continue to flow despite the heightened risk, in part because the Omani corridor is providing an outlet.

“The market is pricing in a persistent nuisance rather than a full-blown disruption,” said an energy analyst at a London-based brokerage. “But that could change quickly if a tanker gets hit.”

Insurance premiums for transits through the Strait have ticked up, but not to crisis levels seen in past episodes, brokers said.

A Bifurcated Waterway

The situation is creating two distinct traffic lanes: the traditional Iranian-adjacent route and the Omani corridor, which runs closer to Oman’s coast and is patrolled by U.S.-allied naval forces. Around 30% of transits now use the Omani route, up from 10% before the attacks escalated, according to shipping data.

“This is becoming a bifurcated waterway,” said a maritime risk consultant at a Dubai-based firm. “And that complicates logistics and insurance for everyone.”

A spokesperson for the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet declined to comment on specific operations but said it remains “committed to ensuring freedom of navigation.”

Implications for Global Energy

The Strait of Hormuz handles about a fifth of the world's oil and a quarter of liquefied natural gas. While the Omani corridor offers a stopgap, it has limited capacity and cannot fully replace the main channel if a major disruption occurs.

Iran’s strategy appears to be one of calibrated escalation: enough to pressure shippers but not enough to trigger a broader conflict. “Tehran wants to be seen as the gatekeeper without shutting the gate entirely,” said a former Iranian diplomat now based in Europe.

Analysts say the risk of a major supply shock is low for now, but the longer tensions persist, the higher the chance of a miscalculation.

This story has been updated to reflect the latest traffic estimates.