• Iran's Revolutionary Guards Navy claims the Strait of Hormuz is secure after implementing new procedures and an end to US threats.
  • Global shipping continues to face disruption, with fragmented transit routes, AIS spoofing, and congestion at key hubs.
  • Oil and shipping markets remain volatile as carriers adapt to evolving rules and insurance concerns.

A Shift in Tone from Tehran

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy announced on Thursday that transit through the Strait of Hormuz is now safe, attributing the change to the cessation of US threats and the introduction of new navigation procedures. In its first official response to Washington's decision to halt assistance for stranded vessels, the Guards did not specify the measures but thanked ship owners and captains for complying with Iranian regulations.

"The Strait of Hormuz is secure for passage, and we appreciate the cooperation of the maritime community in adhering to our guidelines," a spokesperson said, without elaborating on enforcement mechanisms.

Persistent Disruption on the Water

Despite the claim, shipping sources report that the waterway remains a complex operating environment. Observers note a fragmentation of transit routes into dual corridors and restricted lanes, alongside widespread AIS spoofing and dark activity. Congestion has built up at alternative hubs like Fujairah, Khor Fakkan, and the Gulf of Oman as carriers seek to minimize exposure to naval checks or boarding actions.

"We're seeing a patchwork of compliance and evasion," said a Gulf-based shipping broker, speaking on condition of anonymity. "Some vessels are rerouting entirely, while others are testing the new procedures. The situation is far from normal."

Market Jitters and Insurance Woes

Oil and shipping markets have been on edge since tensions escalated last month. Brent crude fluctuated near $85 a barrel on Friday, while container-schedule reliability in the region dropped sharply. Insurers are tightening terms for Hormuz transits, with some war-risk premiums doubling in the past week.

"The market is pricing in a high degree of uncertainty," said a London-based tanker analyst. "Any restoration of safe passage is positive, but the lack of clarity on procedures leaves a lot of room for disruption."

Efforts to reach the US Fifth Fleet for comment were unsuccessful.

Background: A Flashpoint Chokepoint

The Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world's oil passes, has been a perennial flashpoint in US-Iran relations. Past incidents of restricted passage or outright blockades have triggered global market selloffs. The current episode began after Iran detained several vessels, prompting the US to deploy additional naval assets.

Outlook

In the near term, shipping is expected to navigate a hybrid system of restricted corridors and elevated verification, with carriers prioritizing routes that minimize risk while maintaining compliance with Iranian rules. Diplomatic efforts by regional partners to formalize security protocols may offer a long-term solution, but progress remains slow.

Editor's note: This article was updated to include market data from Friday's trading session.