• IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohebbi warns Washington could restart attacks on Iran ahead of the November 3 elections, despite Trump's pledge not to strike.
  • Iran claims it has developed more advanced weapons and threatens a stronger response to renewed U.S. attacks, though these claims remain unverified.
  • Shipping attacks in the Strait of Hormuz are intensifying, with at least five incidents in 48 hours, pushing oil above $100 a barrel and raising fears of a wider conflict.

Tehran's Pre-Election Warning

A spokesman for Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Hossein Mohebbi, warned on Tuesday that Washington could launch new strikes against Iran before the upcoming U.S. midterm elections on November 3, according to Iranian state media. The warning comes despite President Donald Trump's earlier pledge not to attack Iran before the vote. Mohebbi also claimed that Iran has developed more advanced weapons and would deliver a stronger response to any renewed U.S. aggression, though these assertions have not been independently verified and should be treated as Iranian claims rather than confirmed capabilities.

Shipping Attacks Intensify

The harsh rhetoric follows a sharp escalation in attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. According to maritime security sources, at least five incidents—including drone attacks—have been recorded in the preceding 48 hours. The U.S. Navy-led Joint Maritime Information Center classified the threat to merchant shipping as "severe" on October 11, its second-highest level. A U.S. military official told Reuters (TRI) that the IRGC has begun using unarmed spotters in small boats after U.S. strikes destroyed much of its radar capability. Iranian officials have also described plans to extend operations beyond Hormuz, with maritime-security analysis suggesting attacks have already spread to waters off Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.

Economic Fallout

Hormuz, which before the war carried roughly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas trade, remains the primary transmission channel for economic disruption. Traffic has been severely curtailed, and higher shipping and insurance costs are complicating efforts to restore normal flows. A recent CNN (WBD) analysis reported more than a dozen shipping strikes since late September, reduced oil transit, and crude prices above $100 a barrel. The likely effects include higher fuel and transport costs for households and businesses, pressure on energy-intensive industries, and renewed inflation risk. Meanwhile, the war's roughly $3 billion monthly cost has become a campaign issue in the U.S., with higher energy prices adding another channel through which the conflict could influence voters.

Diplomacy Stalled

Efforts to de-escalate have hit a snag. AP reported on October 11 that Iran considered the latest U.S. response to its peace proposal "insufficient." The two countries have remained in contact through mediation, despite rejecting an Iranian proposal submitted during September's U.N. meetings. Two senior Iranian officials told Reuters that one objective of the changed shipping strategy is to influence the U.S. vote by preventing oil prices from falling. That account of Tehran's intent is not proof that the strategy will determine the election outcome.

Regional Spillover

The conflict risks widening further. Houthi attacks on Riyadh's airport killed 12 people and injured others, complicating efforts to end the U.S.-Iran war. The FAA has urged caution for flights above or near Saudi Arabia. U.S. Central Command said it struck the stern of the commercial vessel Ocean Molica after it allegedly ignored warnings and attempted to breach the blockade of Iranian ports, illustrating the continuing risk of military incidents even without a renewed broad bombing campaign. Iran has also threatened regional cables, data centers, and AI facilities, though these remain threats rather than confirmed attacks.

What to Watch

The principal risk is that a shipping incident produces retaliation despite the political pledge to avoid attacks before November 3. Maritime-security specialists quoted by Reuters describe a deliberate increase in attack tempo, and the official threat rating remains severe. A negotiated easing could reduce attacks and help restore commercial traffic, but disagreement over the peace proposal remains substantial. Conversely, Iranian preparations and threats point to the possibility of retaliation beyond Hormuz if major strikes resume. Persistent insecurity could keep energy trade exposed to recurring interruptions and sustain elevated shipping and insurance costs, though the sources reviewed do not support a precise oil-price forecast or a firm timetable for normalization.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the date of the Joint Maritime Information Center's threat assessment. It was October 11, not October 10.