• IRGC intensifies drone and missile attacks on Iranian Kurdish opposition bases in Iraq's Kurdistan Region, with no fatalities reported but ongoing disruptions.
  • Strikes follow US-Israel operation that killed Supreme Leader Khamenei and targeted 1,500 sites in Iran, escalating regional tensions.
  • Economic fallout includes Strait of Hormuz closure disrupting oil shipments and electricity shortages in Kurdistan from gas field cutbacks.

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has ramped up its military campaign against Iranian Kurdish opposition groups based in northern Iraq, launching a series of drone and missile strikes from March 1-3, 2026. The attacks targeted bases of groups like PAK, PDKI, and Komala near Erbil, Sulaymaniyah, Koya, and Duhok, using Shahed-136 drones and ballistic missiles, according to sources familiar with the operations. One injury was reported at PDKI's Azadi camp on March 3, while other incidents saw intercepted missiles at PAK bases and damage to Komala headquarters, as footage showed smoke and structural impacts.

These strikes come amid heightened regional volatility following a US-Israel operation on February 28 that killed Supreme Leader Khamenei and hit 1,500 targets across Iran, with Iran's Red Crescent reporting 787 fatalities. In response, the IRGC and Iraqi proxy militias have intensified their focus on opposition camps, with the KRG Peshmerga and civilian facilities also caught in the crossfire, leading to school closures and power cuts in the region. "We have a constant balance with the security forces, which we consider our partners in maintaining stability," a KRG official said, requesting anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter. The KRG has distanced itself from the opposition groups, barring use of its territory to threaten neighbors, and the US has condemned Iran's attacks, though attempts to reach IRGC spokespeople for comment were unsuccessful.

Economically, the conflict is rippling beyond the immediate battlefield. Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted global oil and gas shipments, compounding disruptions from Houthi Red Sea attacks that have resumed recently. Regional strikes have also hit civilian airports and ports in Kuwait, the UAE, and Oman, while Iraq's Kurdistan faces electricity shortages from gas field cutbacks amid the fighting. Opposition groups report no fatalities from the latest IRGC strikes but claim ongoing operations inside Iran, including attacks on regime missile sites and prisoner releases in Mariwan; they have formed a coalition against Tehran, vowing resilience. "These attacks won't silence us," a PDKI representative stated in a paraphrased comment, highlighting fears of a Kurdish uprising in Iran as US and Israel ground proxies.

Looking ahead, the short-term outlook points to intensified Iranian retaliation, with risks of wider militia attacks on US bases in Iraq and Jordan, as opposition groups plan escalated operations inside Iran. Long-term, experts speculate about a potential Kurdish offensive in western Iran and regime instability from the leadership vacuum, noting a shift to ground dimensions in the conflict. This echoes past tensions since the 2019 US drawdown to Kurdistan, with Iraqi militias eyeing the region as a new frontline. In related developments, US-Israel forces have hit Iranian Kurdish areas, and broader war activities include Iran striking US and Israeli targets, with IDF and IRGC clashes reported in Tehran. The situation remains fluid, with market analysts monitoring oil price volatility and regional security assessments ongoing.