• U.S. and Israeli airstrikes have destroyed approximately half of Iran's missile launchers by early March 2026, significantly degrading its ability to launch coordinated attacks.
  • President Trump claims Iran is running out of launchers and its capabilities are being "decimated," while emphasizing U.S. readiness with "unlimited" ammunition production.
  • The conflict disrupts Gulf shipping and energy infrastructure, heightening risks to global oil markets as Iran targets U.S.-linked facilities across the region.

Escalating Strikes and Infrastructure Damage

Ongoing U.S. and Israeli airstrikes have intensified, with satellite imagery confirming significant damage to a missile facility near Najafabad in Esfahan Province from bunker-buster bombs on March 2, 2026. This follows a series of attacks that have destroyed about half of Iran's launchers by March 1, according to recent assessments. The strikes are part of a broader effort to curb Iran's retaliatory capabilities, which have included targeting naval assets to prevent attacks on shipping and U.S. bases.

Iran's struggles are becoming evident in its recent missile barrages. Where it once fired 2-3 missiles on February 28, recent attacks have seen 9-30 missiles per launch—a sign of diminished coordination due to launcher losses. "We're seeing a clear degradation in their ability to sustain large-scale operations," said one defense analyst familiar with the matter, who spoke on condition of anonymity. Efforts to reach Iranian officials for comment were unsuccessful.

Political and Economic Fallout

President Trump, in a statement to POLITICO, framed the situation starkly: "Iran's missile capabilities are being decimated, and they're running out of launchers." He expressed openness to working with surviving members of Iran's ruling regime, even as U.S. embassies in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait close due to ongoing attacks. Trump anticipates the conflict could last days or weeks, with continued strikes aimed at further weakening Iran's arsenal.

The economic implications are mounting. Iran has deployed drones and missiles against U.S.-linked facilities in Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, the UAE, and Jordan, disrupting Gulf shipping and energy infrastructure. This heightens risks to global oil routes, with markets closely watching for supply chain interruptions. Iran's reliance on missile deterrence, developed from North Korean designs like the Shahab series, is now under unprecedented pressure, straining its already sanctions-weakened position.

Broader Context and Future Outlook

Iran's ballistic missile program, the largest in the Middle East with an estimated 2,000 missiles post-2025 replenishment, has long served as a key deterrent. Recent escalations stem from U.S. and Israeli strikes that prompted Iran's retaliatory launches at Gulf states in late February 2026. Historical precedents include losses from the 2025 Iran-Israel war and underground firing demonstrations since 2020, but current operations represent a significant ramp-up in intensity.

In the short term, Iran may attempt to sustain attacks using solid-fuel missiles like the Sejjil and Kheibar Shekan, with ranges up to 2,500km, and drones from hardened sites. However, launcher losses are limiting the scale of these efforts. "Without a deal or pause, Iran could face further depletion of its critical assets," noted a regional security expert. Long-term, deeper degradation would require sustained operations, with experts questioning Iran's hypersonic claims and highlighting risks of escalation to a Gulf-wide conflict.

Correction: An earlier version misstated the number of missiles fired in recent attacks; it has been updated to reflect the range of 9-30 missiles per launch.