• Israeli and U.S. forces execute Operation Roaring Lion and Epic Fury, targeting Iranian military sites and leadership in multiple cities, including Tehran and Isfahan, with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei among those killed.
  • Iran retaliates with ballistic missiles and drones, causing casualties in Israel and at U.S. bases, while Hezbollah launches rockets from Lebanon, prompting Israeli interceptions and vows of further action.
  • Global energy markets face disruption as oil prices spike amid risks to the Strait of Hormuz, with heightened volatility in defense stocks and commodities as the conflict enters its third day.

A Coordinated Military Escalation

On February 28, 2026, Israel and the United States launched coordinated strikes, codenamed Operation Roaring Lion and Epic Fury, on Iranian military sites, officials, and facilities across cities including Tehran, Isfahan, Qom, Karaj, and Kermanshah. The attacks, which killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the Defense Minister, and IRGC generals, aimed at regime change and halting Iran's nuclear and missile programs, according to officials familiar with the matter. By March 2, Israel reported control over Iranian airspace, with ongoing strikes on defenses and a state of emergency declared, as the conflict entered its third day under UN monitoring for escalations.

Iran retaliated swiftly, firing ballistic missiles and drones that targeted Israel—killing nine Israelis and injuring 121—and U.S. bases in Iraq, where three to four American soldiers died. Hezbollah launched rockets from Lebanon, prompting Israeli interceptions and vows of retaliation, with the IDF deeming it a "declaration of war." Efforts to contain the fallout have hit a snag, as Iranian proxies like the Guardians of the Blood Brigade conducted drone strikes on a U.S. base in Baghdad, and missile barrages hit Gulf nations since Saturday, according to sources close to the situation.

Economic and Market Implications

Global energy markets are reeling from the turmoil, with oil prices spiking amid fears of Strait of Hormuz closures and attacks on regional infrastructure. Gulf airspace shutdowns have compounded the disruption, leading to heightened volatility in defense stocks and commodities. Market analysts note that pre-strike tensions were fueled by unproven claims from the Trump administration of Iranian nuclear advances, impacting the legacy of U.S.-Iran trade sanctions. Without a de-escalation, experts predict sustained oil shocks and broader economic fallout.

In a brief statement, an Israeli official emphasized the strikes as essential to eliminate an "existential threat," while U.S. policy, authorized post-intelligence of Iranian preemptive plans, demands an end to uranium enrichment, missile limits, and proxy support. European and U.S. officials have distanced themselves from Trump's claims, but the coordinated action with Israel underscores a hardened stance. Attempts to reach Iranian representatives for comment were unsuccessful, though Netanyahu has urged an Iranian uprising via cyberattacks, according to people familiar with the discussions.

Regional and Future Outlook

The conflict risks escalating into a multi-front war, with Hezbollah and Iranian counterattacks expected in the short term. Airspace closures and evacuations persist, as hospitals in Israel have moved underground and Iranian civilians received warnings from the IDF to evacuate near military sites. In the long term, potential regime change in Iran could set back its nuclear program, but analysts warn of broader Middle East conflict, refugee flows, and prolonged instability. UN Security Council emergency meetings highlight calls for peace, but Israeli officials foresee the Iranian people overthrowing the regime, while the UN warns of "violent escalation" into days or weeks.

Correction: An earlier version misstated the number of U.S. soldiers killed; it is three to four, not four to five.