• Coordinated U.S.-Israel military operation targets Iranian nuclear and missile facilities, with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei reportedly cut off from contact.
  • Oil markets brace for volatility as tankers avoid the Strait of Hormuz, with OPEC+ considering a supply boost this Sunday.
  • U.S. Democrats move to limit further strikes amid regional shockwaves hitting the UAE and broader Middle East instability.

Operation Epic Fury Unleashed

On February 28, 2026, Israel and the United States launched a joint military operation against Iran, with Israel calling it "Roaring Lion" and the U.S. Department of Defense naming it "Operation Epic Fury." The coordinated strikes targeted multiple Iranian cities including Tehran, Isfahan, Qom, Karaj, and Kermanshah, focusing on nuclear facilities, ballistic missile infrastructure, radar installations, and leadership compounds. According to people familiar with the matter, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's compound in Tehran was heavily damaged or destroyed, and Khamenei is reportedly cut off from contact. Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Shamkhani was reportedly killed, and Iran International reported that thousands of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps personnel, including senior officials, were killed or wounded across several military bases.

President Trump declared that the objective was to destroy Iran's missile and military capabilities, prevent nuclear weapons acquisition, and ultimately topple the regime. He called on IRGC members to lay down their arms in exchange for immunity and on Iran's civilians to rise up and take over their government. Trump described the operation as a "massive and ongoing operation" intended to prevent Iran from threatening American security interests. This escalation follows weeks of Trump's threats and demands to Iran, including ultimatums on February 13 regarding nuclear enrichment, ballistic missile limits, and support for regional proxy groups like Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. On February 14, U.S. officials indicated military planning extended beyond limited strikes to weeks-long sustained operations targeting Iranian state and security infrastructure.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu released a video statement claiming Israel and the U.S. struck to "remove the existential threat" posed by Iran, citing 47 years of hostile rhetoric from Iran's leadership. Efforts to reach Iranian officials for comment were unsuccessful, but sources indicate the situation remains fluid with ongoing assessments of damage and casualties.

Market and Regional Fallout

The strikes have triggered significant energy market concerns. Oil markets are experiencing elevated tension with tankers avoiding the Strait of Hormuz, and analysts warn prices could surge above $100 if the critical waterway closes. The threat to global energy supplies stems from Iran's potential to disrupt shipping through this vital chokepoint, through which approximately one-third of global seaborne oil passes. OPEC+ is reportedly considering a supply boost announcement scheduled for Sunday, likely in response to market volatility and supply security concerns.

Shockwaves from the strikes are affecting the UAE, including major financial centers Dubai and Abu Dhabi, reflecting broader regional economic and geopolitical instability. The broader Middle East faces potential destabilization as Houthi forces announced they would resume attacks in the Red Sea, threatening international shipping routes. Meanwhile, U.S. Democrats are moving to limit further strikes, indicating division within American leadership over the scope and duration of military operations against Iran.

Iran launched dozens of ballistic missiles across the Middle East, targeting Israel and U.S. military bases in Jordan, Syria, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. The Israeli military reported at least two major volleys of missiles launched at Israel, which activated emergency alert sirens and initiated missile defense operations. Without a deal or de-escalation, the region could face prolonged conflict, with Trump appearing focused on attempting to redefine the terms of that 47-year conflict and secure his place in history by trying to resolve it decisively, according to analysis from Chatham House.

Critical uncertainties remain regarding the extent of damage to Iranian nuclear capabilities, the survival and capacity of Iranian leadership, and whether further escalation or negotiation will follow Iran's initial retaliatory strikes. The port city of Bushehr was struck, though damage to its nuclear reactor remains unclear, and two Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces fighters were killed and three injured during strikes in the Jurf al-Sakhar area. This represents an escalation from previous Trump administration actions, including airstrikes on three major Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025 and the killing of General Qassem Soleimani in 2020.