• Israeli intelligence is heightening U.S. concern about Iran, but some American officials remain unconvinced by the assessments or the case for renewed military action.
  • U.S. and Israeli military officials have prepared an expanded target list that includes Iranian energy infrastructure, while Gulf governments fear retaliation against their territories.
  • Limited U.S. strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island and diplomatic signals from President Trump are occurring simultaneously, leaving regional allies uncertain about Washington's ultimate course.

A Divide Over Intelligence

Israeli intelligence is raising alarms in Washington about Iran's activities, but the assessments are meeting skepticism from some U.S. officials, according to people familiar with the matter. The divide underscores the difficulty of building consensus for a renewed military campaign even as both countries prepare for potential escalation.

The intelligence in question has not been independently verified, and officials cautioned that it does not represent a confirmed decision by Israel or the United States to launch a major new offensive. Still, the mere presentation of the material has intensified debates within the administration over how to respond.

Military Preparations and Diplomatic Signals

U.S. and Israeli military officials have drawn up an expanded target list that includes Iranian energy infrastructure and other economically important assets, according to officials briefed on the planning. The preparations come as Gulf governments warn that renewed attacks could trigger Iranian retaliation against their territories, which host U.S. military installations, international businesses, and major energy facilities.

Separately, U.S. forces conducted targeted strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island on Monday, U.S. officials told reporters. President Trump has continued to signal that a diplomatic agreement with Tehran remains possible, creating a dual-track approach of limited military action and negotiations.

"We're keeping all options on the table, but we'd prefer a deal," a senior administration official said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive deliberations.

Regional Anxiety and Economic Stakes

The prospect of a wider conflict is heightening concerns in Gulf capitals. At the recent Manama security conference, UAE presidential adviser Anwar Gargash warned that U.S. and Iranian negotiating positions remained significantly divergent. Gulf states, which are U.S. security partners, could absorb Iranian retaliation targeting oil and gas facilities, Western businesses, and critical infrastructure.

Iran has also threatened regional underwater communications systems, widening the concern beyond petroleum alone. Earlier fighting this year drove up energy prices and inflation internationally, and renewed targeting of energy infrastructure risks repeating that disruption, according to analysts.

The Pentagon is also grappling with strained missile-interceptor supplies after earlier fighting, making a renewed campaign a question of defensive capacity as well as offensive capability.

Internal Israeli Debate

The intelligence dispute comes amid signs of disagreement within Israel. An October report said military chief Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir resisted Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's push for action before Israel's election, judging that there was no immediate or urgent operational need. The Israeli military said its decisions were based strictly on security considerations.

Israel's U.N. ambassador, Danny Danon, denied on November 2 that Netanyahu was pressuring Trump to resume strikes. He also rejected commentator Tucker Carlson's claim that a nuclear strike was being considered, calling it unverified.

Requests for comment from the White House and the Israeli Prime Minister's office were not immediately returned.

The Road Ahead

The decisive questions in the coming weeks are whether negotiations can narrow the U.S.-Iran gap, whether Trump approves a broader campaign, and how Iran responds to ongoing limited strikes. Military preparations establish capability and options—not inevitability.

Some officials argue that another major round of attacks could force economic and diplomatic concessions from Tehran. But the historical record offers reasons for skepticism: earlier this year, Israeli proposals envisioned attacks and intelligence operations helping ignite an uprising inside Iran, yet American and Israeli assessments by March described the government as weakened but intact, with repression discouraging rebellion.

As one U.S. official put it, "We've seen this movie before. The question is whether the ending will be different."

Clarification: An earlier version of this article misstated the date of the U.S. strikes on Qeshm Island. They occurred on Monday, not Sunday.