• Lebanon's cabinet is reviewing a four-phase US proposal to disarm Hezbollah by end-2025, linked to Israeli withdrawal and aid incentives.
  • Hezbollah rejects the plan, calling it 'unrealistic,' while two allied ministers walked out of discussions, signaling political fractures.
  • The deal could unlock IMF support and reconstruction aid, but implementation risks remain high amid regional tensions.

A Pivotal Moment for Lebanon

Lebanon’s government is locked in tense deliberations over a US-backed plan that would see Hezbollah disarmed by the end of 2025, according to a cabinet meeting agenda obtained by sources familiar with the matter. The proposal, presented by US envoy Tom Barrack, outlines a 120-day phased process contingent on Lebanon committing to disarm the Iran-backed group within 15 days of signing. In exchange, Israel would halt military operations in Lebanon and withdraw from occupied southern territories.

Hezbollah has dismissed the proposal outright, with senior officials insisting any disarmament must follow national consensus—not unilateral government action. The group’s political allies reinforced this stance by staging a walkout during recent cabinet talks, underscoring the fragility of Lebanon’s coalition government. 'This isn’t negotiation—it’s diktat,' one Hezbollah-aligned lawmaker said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Stakes and Stumbling Blocks

The plan’s economic sweeteners—including IMF cooperation and international reconstruction funding—are compelling for a nation grappling with a collapsed banking sector and soaring poverty. Yet skepticism runs deep. 'Hezbollah won’t surrender its arsenal without guarantees Israel won’t renege,' said a Beirut-based analyst. Recent UNIFIL discoveries of Hezbollah tunnels near the Israeli border have added urgency to discussions, but also hardened positions.

Market reaction has been muted, reflecting entrenched doubts. Lebanon’s dollar bonds held steady, with traders citing 'too many ifs' around implementation. Meanwhile, southern communities brace for upheaval: 'We’re caught between missiles and empty promises,' said a resident near the Litani River, where clashes flared last November.

What Comes Next?

With US and French monitors poised to oversee compliance, the next fortnight could prove decisive. Failure to secure cabinet approval would likely stall the initiative, risking renewed hostilities. Even if adopted, enforcement remains a thorny challenge—past disarmament drives faltered amid institutional weakness. As one European diplomat noted: 'This isn’t just about weapons. It’s about rewriting Lebanon’s power balance.'