• Loop Capital raises its Apple price target to $325 from $315, maintaining a Buy rating and forecasting three consecutive record iPhone shipment years through 2027.
  • The upgrade follows stronger-than-expected iPhone 17 sales, with the base model outperforming and the Air variant selling out in key markets, challenging earlier skepticism about the product cycle.
  • Analysts adjusted average selling price assumptions to reflect Apple's increased carrier subsidy absorption but see sustained pricing power and unit upside as the company nears a $4 trillion market cap.

Loop Capital has raised its price target on Apple Inc. to $325 from $315, marking its second upward revision in a short timeframe and reinforcing a Buy rating on the stock. The move, confirmed in a note to clients seen by Roic AI, is predicated on revised iPhone forecasts that anticipate a multi-year growth cycle, beginning with the current iPhone 17 launch which has "significantly exceeded expectations."

According to people familiar with the firm's analysis, the updated model incorporates higher expected sales for the iPhone 17 base model, lower volumes for the discontinued iPhone 16 Pro and the new iPhone 17 Air, and initial estimates for the iPhone 18. A key adjustment was a downward revision to average selling price (ASP) assumptions, a move the analysts attributed to Apple's increased absorption of carrier subsidies—a strategic shift to drive unit volume without fully sacrificing margin.

"We are now at the beginning of Apple's long-anticipated adoption cycle," the Loop Capital note stated, a viewpoint that suggests ongoing iPhone shipment expansion through 2027. The firm now projects record shipments of 238 million units in 2025, 250 million in 2026, and more than 260 million in 2027. This outlook directly challenges prevailing market concerns about smartphone saturation and tepid upgrade cycles.

The iPhone 17 launch appears to be the catalyst for this renewed optimism. Early data indicates that in their first 10 days of sales in the U.S. and China, iPhone 17 models outsold the iPhone 16 by 14%. Demand for the iPhone 17 Air was particularly acute in China, where it sold out minutes after orders commenced, potentially adding 4-6 million units of upside in the current quarter. This strength allowed Apple to maintain its position as, in Loop's words, "the sole major player posting quarter-over-quarter upside" in China last quarter.

Apple's shares, which hit an all-time high earlier this week following Loop's prior upgrade, were trading slightly higher in pre-market activity. The company's market capitalization, now hovering around $3.9 trillion, places it on the precipice of the exclusive $4 trillion club alongside Nvidia. Despite this momentum, Apple has underperformed the broader market in 2025, gaining only 7.5% year-to-date compared to the S&P 500's 14.7% rise—a gap this latest analysis suggests could narrow.

Other firms are taking note. Evercore ISI recently added Apple to its tactical outperform list, citing iPhone demand data that points to a stronger-than-usual refresh cycle. The collective analyst turn reflects a theme of cautious sentiment being overtaken by robust consumer behavior, as initial criticisms that the iPhone 17 was too iterative have been drowned out by sales figures.

Efforts to reach Apple for comment on the carrier subsidy strategy were unsuccessful. The company typically does not comment on analyst reports or specific pricing tactics with partners.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the previous price target from Loop Capital. It was $315, not $226. The $226 target was from a prior, earlier upgrade.