• Mizuho reiterates Outperform rating and $200 price target on SpaceX following strong first public results.
  • Revenue surged 92% YoY to $7.8B, with adjusted EBITDA up 191% to $3.5B, fueled by AI-led growth.
  • Management sets ambitious targets: $100B ARR by December, $1T revenue by 2030, and potential Starship tower catch this month.

A Stellar Debut on Nasdaq

SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) has captured Wall Street's attention since its mid-2026 listing, and Mizuho's latest reaffirmation underscores the company's momentum. The firm reiterated its Outperform rating with a $200 price target on the aerospace and AI infrastructure giant, citing robust early results and a compelling long-term outlook.

Record-Breaking Financials

In its first public earnings report, SpaceX posted $7.8 billion in revenue, a 92% year-over-year increase, and $3.5 billion in adjusted EBITDA, up 191% from the prior year. The standout driver was AI, which contributed $2.6 billion in revenue and turned profitable, signaling a major shift in the company's revenue mix. Analysts noted that AI infrastructure demand, combined with SpaceX's launch and satellite connectivity businesses, is unlocking scalable growth.

"We see SpaceX as a unique play on AI compute, space launch, and global connectivity," said a Mizuho analyst in a note to clients. "The company's ability to monetize its assets across multiple segments is just beginning."

Ambitious Targets Ahead

Management didn't hold back on future goals, outlining a path to $100 billion in annual recurring revenue (ARR) by December and a staggering $1 trillion in revenue by 2030. These targets, while aggressive, reflect the company's confidence in its compute expansion and Starship program's potential. A potential Starship tower catch is expected as early as this month, which could mark a significant operational milestone.

"SpaceX is not just a rocket company anymore," said a senior industry analyst. "With AI infrastructure becoming a core pillar, they're positioning themselves as a foundational player in the digital economy."

Market Context

The bullish sentiment extends beyond Mizuho, with multiple banks initiating or raising targets following the listing. The broader consensus views SpaceX as an AI-enabled infrastructure platform, benefiting from surging demand for compute and data services. However, execution risk remains, given capital intensity and regulatory scrutiny in both aerospace and AI sectors.

SpaceX's dual role as a hardware and AI provider has also attracted attention from international investors, who see Italy and other markets opening up to private capital. While SpaceX's public debut is distinct from private market trends, the company's growth mirrors a broader shift toward infrastructure investments.

Outlook and Key Catalysts

Investors will watch for updates on ARR progress, Starship milestones, and compute capacity expansion in the coming months. Regulatory developments in space communications and AI data processing could also influence the trajectory. For now, Mizuho's reaffirmation suggests the street remains confident in SpaceX's ability to disrupt and dominate.

This story is developing. Check back for updates.