- Morgan Stanley analysts project SpaceX revenue reaching $3.4 trillion and adjusted EBITDA exceeding $2.7 trillion by 2040, driven by Starlink and Starship.
- The bold forecast underscores SpaceX's shift to high-margin recurring revenue, but hinges on execution, capital markets access, and regulatory factors.
Morgan Stanley analysts have issued a blockbuster projection for SpaceX, estimating the private space company could generate $3.4 trillion in revenue and more than $2.7 trillion in adjusted EBITDA by 2040, according to people familiar with the matter. The bullish outlook, which dwarfs current valuations, is fueled by the rapid scaling of Starlink's satellite internet business and the anticipated launch of Starship-based services.
The analysts see Starlink as the primary growth engine, with subscriptions expected to reach hundreds of millions globally, transforming SpaceX's revenue mix toward recurring, high-margin streams. Starship, meanwhile, could unlock new markets in space-based manufacturing, tourism, and defense. The projections assume SpaceX successfully navigates its capital-intensive buildout, with access to debt and equity markets remaining a key risk.
“SpaceX is uniquely positioned to dominate multiple space-adjacent markets,” one analyst said, speaking on condition of anonymity. “But these numbers are only achievable if Starlink achieves mass-market adoption and Starship hits its cadence targets.”
The report adds to a chorus of aggressive valuations from Wall Street. Goldman Sachs previously highlighted AI-driven revenue surging toward the hundreds of billions by 2030. Critics caution that SpaceX's reliance on Elon Musk's leadership, regulatory hurdles, and potential capex overruns could derail the trajectory.
SpaceX declined to comment on the projections. The company has been cash-flow positive in recent quarters, buoyed by Starlink subscriber growth and cost discipline in launch operations.
Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the year of the projection; it is 2040, not 2041.