• Trump administration weighs overhaul of Biden-era AI chip export rules, potentially scrapping tiered system.
  • Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's high-level engagements appear to influence policy discussions.
  • Changes could reshape global AI development landscape and Nvidia's China market access.

Policy Overhaul in the Works

The Trump administration is actively working to revise the Biden administration's Framework for Artificial Intelligence Diffusion rule, set to take effect May 15, 2025. The current framework establishes a three-tier system governing AI chip exports, with China facing complete restrictions. Sources familiar with the discussions say the administration is considering replacing this with a government-to-government licensing regime that could turn advanced semiconductors into a more potent trade negotiation tool.

Nvidia's Behind-the-Scenenes Influence

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has emerged as a key figure in these policy discussions following multiple high-profile engagements with Trump officials. After a White House meeting in January and a reported $1 million-per-plate Mar-a-Lago dinner in April, the administration appears to be walking back some restrictions - particularly those affecting Nvidia's H20 chips crucial for Chinese AI development. "When policy impacts both national security and American business competitiveness, you need industry perspective," said one Commerce Department official who asked not to be named.

Market Implications

The potential policy shift comes as Chinese startups like DeepSeek demonstrate surprising AI advancements using available chips, sparking concerns about the effectiveness of current restrictions. Nvidia shares have been volatile amid the uncertainty, with analysts estimating China represents 20-25% of their data center revenue. The H20 chip in particular has become a flashpoint, with some in the administration arguing restrictions merely accelerate Chinese domestic chip development while hurting US firms.

What's Next

While former Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross calls the plans "a work in progress," industry watchers expect decisions before the May implementation date. The changes could significantly alter the global AI arms race, with one semiconductor analyst noting: "This isn't just about chips - it's about who controls the infrastructure of artificial intelligence development worldwide." Nvidia declined to comment on Huang's specific discussions with administration officials.