• Nvidia’s institutional ownership gap versus its S&P 500 weighting widened by 92 basis points in Q2, the largest increase among its megacap tech peers.
  • The finding, based on a Morgan Stanley review of recent 13F filings, suggests a potential disconnect between the chipmaker’s market influence and its portfolio representation.
  • Despite explosive growth, including a 122% year-over-year revenue surge to $30.0 billion last quarter, some institutional investors appear to be underweight the AI leader.

A fresh analysis of institutional holdings reveals a surprising trend for the company at the forefront of the artificial intelligence boom. According to a Morgan Stanley review of second-quarter 13F filings, Nvidia Corp. is now the most under-owned megacap technology stock relative to its weighting in the S&P 500 index. The ownership gap for the chipmaker widened by a substantial 92 basis points during the quarter, marking the largest divergence among the big tech names.

The data suggests that even as Nvidia’s financial performance has shattered records—with data center revenue soaring 154% year-over-year to $26.3 billion—many active fund managers have not kept pace with the stock’s rising index influence. This under-ownership persists despite the company announcing a massive $50 billion share buyback program, a move typically seen as a strong signal of confidence by corporate leadership.

“It’s a fascinating disconnect,” said one portfolio manager who reviewed the data but wasn’t authorized to speak publicly. “The fundamental story is arguably the strongest in the market, yet ownership hasn’t fully caught up to the market cap story.” The manager cited lingering concerns about valuation sustainability and potential sector rotation as possible reasons for the hesitation.

Morgan Stanley’s team, which sifted through the latest regulatory filings from major investment firms, found that while megacap tech stocks broadly remain under-owned by institutions, Nvidia’s situation is the most pronounced. The company’s transformation from a gaming-focused GPU designer to the central infrastructure provider for the AI era has happened at a breathtaking pace, perhaps too quickly for some institutional mandates to adjust accordingly.

Efforts to reach Nvidia for comment on the ownership data were not immediately successful. A representative for Morgan Stanley declined to elaborate beyond the published analysis.

The under-ownership narrative presents a potential bullish case for the stock, suggesting there remains a large pool of institutional capital that could flow into Nvidia shares if fund managers decide to close the gap. However, it also highlights the cautious stance some professional investors are taking toward a stock that has become synonymous with both unprecedented opportunity and valuation risk.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the quarter in which the 13F filings were reviewed. The analysis was of Q2 2024 filings.