• TankerTrackers data shows a growing number of oil tankers redirecting voyages to Iran, carrying crude cargo amid ongoing sanctions.
  • The trend highlights Tehran's efforts to sustain export revenue through opaque shipping tactics, including ship-to-ship transfers and reflagging.
  • Analysts warn that increased floating storage and diverted shipments could add volatility to global oil prices, already sensitive to geopolitical tensions.

The number of oil tankers redirecting their routes to Iran with crude cargo has been rising, according to vessel-tracking data from TankerTrackers. The increase signals that Tehran is stepping up efforts to maintain oil exports despite Western sanctions that target its energy sector. The data, reviewed by Bloomberg, shows a noticeable uptick in tankers altering their destinations to Iranian ports or engaging in ship-to-ship transfers in regional waters.

Iran has long employed such tactics to evade restrictions, including disabling AIS signals and using offshore storage. The current wave of redirections comes as the U.S. and its allies tighten enforcement of sanctions, particularly after the breakdown of nuclear talks. "We're seeing a clear pattern of vessels heading toward Iranian waters, often with their transponders switched off," said a source familiar with TankerTrackers' methodology. "It's a cat-and-mouse game."

The implications for global oil markets are significant. Iran's crude exports have fluctuated between 500,000 and 1.5 million barrels per day in recent years, depending on sanctions enforcement. Any sustained increase in shipments could pressure prices, especially as OPEC+ maintains production curbs. Meanwhile, the rise in floating storage—tankers loaded with crude waiting offshore—adds an opaque buffer that could disrupt supply-demand balances.

Political and economic factors are driving the trend. The Biden administration has maintained a tough stance on Iran, though some analysts see potential for a new agreement that could ease restrictions. "The market is pricing in a range of outcomes, from tighter enforcement to a potential deal," said an oil analyst at Energy Aspects. "For now, every tanker that moves toward Iran is a reminder of how fragile the supply picture is."

Attempts to reach the Iranian oil ministry for comment were unsuccessful. TankerTrackers declined to comment on specific vessels, citing commercial sensitivity.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the time frame of the data. The rise in redirecting tankers has been observed over the past four weeks, not two.