• Transit through the Strait of Hormuz is far below pre-war levels, with most vessels using a narrow northern route between Iran's Larak and Qeshm islands.
  • In March, 80% of the few tankers passing through were Iranian or from friendly nations, highlighting Tehran's growing control.
  • The curtailment of normal flow is contributing to higher global fuel prices and increased uncertainty around energy supply chains.

Independent trackers and maritime analysts report a dramatic decline in transits—well over 90% below pre-war levels—driven by security concerns, Iranian controls, and disruption from ongoing hostilities. This has pushed vessels toward a constrained northern passage, altering the corridor's historic traffic patterns.

Iran publicly indicated it is allowing ships from certain friendly nations, such as China, Russia, India, and Malaysia, to transit, while restricting or delaying others, including vessels tied to adversaries. This has created a de facto gatekeeping regime at Hormuz and contributed to vessel backlogs, according to people familiar with the matter.

Observations from multiple sources indicate the traffic decline is continuing into March 2026, with occasional small flurries of activity but no return to historical throughput levels. Efforts to restore normal passage have hit a snag, as Tehran's selective diplomacy and risk-managed routing persist amid broader regional tensions.

Without a deal to ease restrictions, the situation could strain global energy markets further. Prolonged chokepoint risk tends to raise transit costs and insurance premia for ships traveling near the Gulf, impacting charter rates and supplier pricing. Benchmark crude and LNG prices may remain elevated or exhibit volatility depending on replacement flows, stock levels, and regional demand.

Oil-importing nations that rely on Hormuz transit may experience tighter supply options and higher costs, while fuel-dependent industries face price and schedule risks. Delays, diversions, and the need to comply with Iran's rules create operational uncertainty and potential safety concerns for crews, sources say.

In the short term, expect continued restricted traffic with occasional spikes driven by political developments or Iran's policy changes; market volatility around energy prices is likely to persist. Long-term, structural shifts toward diversified routes or increased storage capacity could emerge if Hormuz stability remains uncertain, potentially reshaping global shipping logistics and risk management.

Related developments to monitor include Iran's stated cooperation with friendly nations and any new lists of allowed vessels, changes in transit numbers and corridor routing as geopolitical events unfold, and market responses in crude/LNG prices, as well as tanker rates and insurance, in response to Hormuz dynamics.

This article was updated to clarify the percentage of tanker traffic from friendly nations in March.