• A new European Council on Foreign Relations survey across 15 countries shows only 11% of Europeans view the U.S. as an ally, down from 22% in late 2024 and a record low.
  • Majorities doubt Washington would defend them if attacked, with sentiment favoring greater European defense autonomy and reduced reliance on U.S. weapons.
  • The findings, released ahead of upcoming G7 and NATO summits, reflect waning trust and could accelerate EU defense integration efforts.

Transatlantic Trust Hits New Low

Just 11% of Europeans now consider the United States an ally, according to a European Council on Foreign Relations survey across 15 countries—a dramatic drop from 22% in November 2024 and 16% six months before that. The results, released ahead of this month’s G7 and NATO summits, underscore a deepening crisis of confidence in Washington’s security commitments.

“The idea of the U.S. as a reliable partner is fading fast,” one ECFR official said, speaking on condition of anonymity. The poll reveals that most Europeans doubt the U.S. would come to their defense if attacked, with a plurality now viewing America as a “necessary partner” rather than an ally. In some countries, sizable shares even see the U.S. as a competitor or adversary.

Growing Appetite for Defense Autonomy

The survey shows strong support for boosting European defense capabilities: majorities back higher military spending, joint EU defense funding, and reducing reliance on U.S. weapons. This aligns with ongoing NATO burden-sharing debates and EU efforts to achieve strategic autonomy. “European publics are signaling they want to take more responsibility for their own security,” said Jörg Hansen, a security analyst. “That is a game-changer for transatlantic relations.”

Implications for Policy and Markets

The shift in public opinion is likely to accelerate EU defense integration, including joint procurement and investment in domestic defense industries. For investors, that could mean opportunities in European defense contractors and industrial policy plays. However, the path forward remains politically complex, as EU member states balance autonomy with continued NATO cooperation. Without a renewed commitment from Washington, European leaders may face increasing pressure to act independently.

Clarification: The poll was conducted before recent diplomatic efforts, and further shifts may have occurred.