• OPEC+ is discussing increasing oil production by 500,000 barrels per day each month over the next three months, according to a delegate familiar with the matter.
  • The potential 1.5 million b/d total increase comes as the group seeks to respond to shifting market conditions and regain market share.
  • Crude futures dropped on the news, reflecting market concerns about potential oversupply amid softening global demand.

OPEC+ delegates are actively considering a proposal to accelerate production increases, with a plan to add 500,000 barrels per day each month over the next three months, according to people familiar with the discussions. The move would mark a significant shift in the group's strategy as it attempts to navigate competing pressures from consuming nations and its own member economies.

The discussions come just weeks after the coalition agreed to a 547,000 b/d production increase for September, continuing a pattern of gradual output restoration. The new proposal, if adopted, would substantially accelerate that pace, adding up to 1.5 million b/d to global supplies by year-end. "The market dynamics are forcing a reassessment," said one delegate, who asked not to be identified because the talks are private.

Market reaction was immediate, with West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude futures settling lower on Wednesday. The sell-off reflected trader concerns that additional supply could overwhelm demand at a time when economic indicators point to potential softening in key markets.

The proposal represents a delicate balancing act for the organization, which collectively accounts for approximately 40% of global crude production. While higher output could help the group maintain market share, it risks driving prices lower at a time when many member nations rely on oil revenue to fund government budgets.

According to recent projections from the Energy Information Administration, Brent crude prices could fall from around $68 per barrel in August to an average of $59 in the fourth quarter of 2025 if inventories build as expected. Some analysts see prices potentially dipping below $51 in 2026 if the supply increases materialize amid tepid demand growth.

Efforts to reach OPEC+ representatives for additional comment were not immediately successful. The group is scheduled to revisit production policy at its next formal meeting on September 7, though delegates indicated that informal discussions about accelerating the increases are ongoing.

The production debate occurs against a backdrop of geopolitical complexity, including ongoing tensions around Russian oil flows and potential US policy actions targeting third-country purchases of Russian crude. These factors add another layer of uncertainty to an already volatile market landscape.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the timing of the next OPEC+ meeting. It is scheduled for September 7, not September 5.